Ronald Reagan is Dead. Let Him Rest in Peace

This is in no way a criticism of Ronald Reagan. He was a very successful and popular president, with numerous good qualities. He is both a fascinating and important historical figure. But that is the problem: he is a HISTORICAL figure. It has been 20 years since he served in public office. The Republican party has been referring to him at an increasing and disturbing pace. They use his name like a magical incantation to try to ward off criticism and evidence of their own failure.

The problem with the GOP's endless referencing of Ronald Reagan is that I have no direct memories of the man. And I'm not alone. Roughly 20% of the American electorate has basically no memory of his presidency (interestingly, these same voters are increasingly voting Democrat), and the problem is only going to get worse. By 2012, half the voters will be too young to have been able to vote for Reagan. If the Republicans want to regain the majority, their rhetoric must not be stuck in the past.

It is understandable the Republicans feel the need to remind people after their last two presidents (one who was a mild failure and the other a complete disaster) that there is such a thing as a successful Republican president. The urge to try to revert back to a happy time is only natural. Much like a mid-aged, unemployed plumber, they seem unable to stop talking about their glory days playing football in high school. Unless the GOP is prepared to lose a whole generation, they need to start looking forward. My recommendation is a complete moratorium on using Reagan's name.

The Black and Youth Waves Were Real

I have noticed that several political writers and pundits have been claiming that African Americans and young people failed to turn out in the huge numbers that people were expecting. Recently the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza claimed that it is a "myth" that "a wave of African Americans and youth voters was the key to Obama's victory."

The truth is that African Americans and young people did turnout in large numbers for Barack Obama and were important to his victory.

According to exit polls, African Americans made up 11% of the total vote in 2004 and 13% in 2008. 2% does not sound like a lot, but that is a huge jump. That means African Americans increased their percent of the electorate by 18%. But overall turnout was higher in 2008 than it was in 2004, so in fact 22% more African Americans voted in 2008. A 22% increase in turnout among African Americans had a huge impact on Obama's victory. Not only did African Americans vote in large numbers, but they also voted more heavily for Obama. Obama received 32% more votes from African Americans than John Kerry. That allowed him to net 4.6 million more votes from the African American community than John Kerry. Only 3 million votes separated George W. Bush and John Kerry and 8.5 million votes separated Barack Obama and John McCain.

Similarly, the youth vote only increased from 17% of the electorate to 18%, but the vote was overwhelmingly for Obama. Barack Obama received 34% more votes from 18-29 year olds than John Kerry. That is a net positive of more than 5.9 million votes from youth voters than John Kerry.

32% more African American voters and 34% more youth voters showed up to cast a ballot for Barrack Obama than John Kerry. This is a huge surge given that overall turnout was higher only by 4% in 2008 than 2004. If John Kerry had preformed as well as Barack Obama among African Americans or young voters, he would have won the popular vote.

Give Democrats All The Rope They Need on Health Care

A piece of advice for the new congressional Republican minority: give the Democrats as much rope as they need to hang themselves with health care.

Everyone admits that health care is in desperate need of reform. There are already 47 million uninsured Americans, and that number is only going to grow during the economic downturn. Health care commitments are slowly strangling businesses, and even people with health care are watching their premiums rise rapidly.

According to exit polls, the economy dominated as the top issue for voters, but terrorism, Iraq, and health care all basically tied for second. In four years, the majority of American troops will be out of Iraq. And regardless of what happens to the economy, it is unlikely (for good or ill) that it will not be in "crisis" mode. Already, 2/3 of voters are worried about the cost of health care, and the vast majority of those voters voted for Democrats. If nothing is done, it is impossible to imagine that health care won't grow as a decisive issue.

Ideally, the GOP would come up with their own free market solution to the health care crisis and own the problem. That has not happened and likely never will. John McCain's health care plan was a sick joke. Try to make everyone privately buy insurance with $5,000 refundable tax credits! How is this fiscally responsible and not "spreading the wealth around"? The overhead cost of simply sending a bill, depositing checks, and processing 100 million individual Americans would be over a billion dollars. Finally, McCain's plan would make it easier for insurance companies to cherry pick customers and not cover preexisting conditions. This would leave the million Americans who most need health insurance (those will diabetes, high cholesterol, heart disease, cancer, AIDS, etc...) without it.

John McCain's plan was not the answer to our health care woes, and I don't think the Republicans could ever come up with an ideological solution. Health care simply can't work on free market principles because no one wants to die. I can choose what car, TV, or phone I buy, but I can't choose my body. If I don't want to or can't pay for car insurance, I can choose not to drive. If flood insurance is too much, I can move to a drier climate. If I don't have health care, I die. While one can shop around for a primary care doctor, that is not the source of most health care expenses. If I'm being rushed to the hospital while having a heart attack, I don't really have time to do some price comparisons. If my appendix bursts, I either get expensive surgery, or I die. If there is only one medication for my fatal disease, I literally have no choice but to pay any price. There is not a free market solution to health care because there is a lack of freedom. You normally can't wait, can't shop around, can't choose an alternative treatment. Either you get what you need now (at any price), or you die.

If the Republicans are smart they will let the Democrats push through whatever universal health care plan they want and allow them to take the issue off the table. Of course, they can't allow it to look like they are giving up. The Republicans will make a public protest warning about all the new problems the plan will create (and like any large change, it will create a bunch of unforeseen problems), setting themselves up to capitalize on the birth pains caused by the new program. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the Republican senators will trade their non-interference for concessions on other issues.

Democrats could easily become victims of their own success. With the war in Iraq brought to an end and health care dealt with, they will lose two of their most powerful rallying points. They will also be forced to own all the problems of the new health care program. American voters have short memories. Let the Democrats deal with health care, and it is possible that Republicans can quickly turn the national debate back to friendly ground of taxes, crime, and family values.

A Nation of Dreamers

I believe the reason that Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech lingers so heavily in our nation's collective imagination is simply because our nation is built on a foundation of improbable and seminally impossible dreams. This nation started with the absurd idea that a loose confederation of colonies could beat the mighty British Empire and a dream that a country could be governed without a king. We dreamed that if a people were allowed to worship however they saw fit, allowed to freely voice their discontent, and choose their own leaders the result would not be anarchy but greater civil harmony. It was a dream that power could be decided with the ballot box instead of bullets, which is the foundation to our democracy.

It was the fantastical dream of two bicycle builders that gave humanity the ability to fly. And the dream of a great leader that put a man on the moon. It was a life-long dreamer from New Jersey who allowed us to light and record the world. It was a dream that drove waves immigrants fleeing starvation, persecution, and genocide to our shores. What they came seeking was not simply sanctuary, but a hope for a better future. They came to live in a land of peace, prosperity, and dreams.

At the outset of our formation, a single phrase both defined and dominated our nation's soul: "that all men are created equal." While we have yet to achieve this exulted goal, with every year it grows closer. It was this great dream which led women to march, to sit, and to starve for their rights. And it was this dream that consumed the life of a preacher from Atlanta. He dreamed of equality and hoped--against ample evidence to the contrary--that he could appeal to his country's soul with love and patience.

While even a decade ago few could imagine a half-black child born in Hawaii and raised by a single mother could ever become the leader of the free world, Barack Obama did. This election once again affirms that America is the place where improbable dreams become possibilities. We are only limited by our imagination and are still a nation of dreamers.

GO VOTE!

Tomorrow is Election Day, so go vote. There is no excuse for sitting out this historic election.