I personally have great respect for John McCain; that is why I'm incredibly disturbed by his most recent statements. It has been reported that John McCain has repeatedly claimed Iran is training and supporting Al Qaeda's fight in Iraq. This was not a one-time slip of the tongue, but a statement he has made several times.
While it is true that Iran has been helping several Shiite groups and militias, it is patently absurd to think they would be supporting the Sunni group, Al Qaeda. Anyone who has studied the Iraq war or Al Qaeda should be aware of this fact. Shiites are a sworn enemy of Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda has killed thousands of Shiite Muslims in Iraq. The idea Iran is supporting Al Qaeda in Iraq is as absurd as, say, the Apartheid South African government supporting the American Black Panther movement.
Why would John McCain repeat this incredible falsehood? There are only three possibilities, and none of them are good:
1) John McCain in fact does not understand even the rudimentary facts about the Iraq war and the Middle East as a whole.
2) John McCain is an old man who can't keep his facts straight and misspeaks repeatedly.
3) John McCain is purposely lying to the American people about a connection between Iran and Al Qaeda for political gain or to drum up support for action against Iran.
None of these possibilities are reassuring about a John McCain presidency. At his most recent press conference, where John McCain again made the false claim about an Iran/Al Qaeda connection, Joe Lieberman was able to prompt him to correct himself. If he continues to "misspeaks" it should be very concerning.
The Fighter vs. The Winner
I’ve noticed that there is a strong narrative in the media that Hillary Clinton is a “fighter”. While I have no doubt that Clinton is a strong fighter, I have a problem with the implication that somehow Barack Obama is not a fighter. I’m shocked that no one seems to be examining this bizarre logic.
If Barack Obama isn’t “fightin back,” how come he is winning? He has won more votes, states, and delegates. If Hillary Clinton is such a good fighter, how come she can’t beat a candidate that doesn’t know how to fight?
There are only two possible explanations:
First, Barack Obama really is a lightweight, he has no idea what he is doing, and doesn’t know how to fight. If so, this is horrible news for the “fighter” Hillary Clinton. What kind of fighter can’t beat a weakling that doesn’t even know how to fight back?
Second, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are both great fighters with very different styles. Barack Obama is an equal skilled fighter, but he just makes it look easy.
I leave you with this wisdom from Sun Tzu’s Art of War
What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease.
Rev. Wright’s Stupidity May Ironically Help Obama
Rev. Wright is an idiot on two counts. First, if your friend is a black man running for office don't use the term "rich white people," and especially don't use it as part of an analogy which compares politicians to the Roman authorities who crucified Christ. Second, anyone who honestly studied both the Bible and history should know that Jesus was a Middle Eastern Semitic Jew. The idea that Jesus was "black" is equally as foolish is the idea that Jesus was blonde-haired and blue-eyed.
Despite the foolishness of Rev. Wright's comments, Americans seem to be fairly forgiving to Christian spiritual leaders who make insane statements. Rev. Wright implied that American foreign policy was partly responsible for 9/11; Jerry Falwell implied it was the fault of the "pagans, and the abortionists, and the feminists, and the gays." Pat Robertson thinks Hinduism is "demonic." John Hagee called the Roman Catholic Church the "great whore." And as AIDS destroys Africa, the Catholic Church is only thinking about maybe letting married couples use condoms, only if one of the spouses is HIV positive.
What is the possible benefit of people learning that Obama's former pastor is kind of crazy? People are learning that Obama had a pastor. The most recent NBC/WSJ national poll shows that 13% of respondents think Obama is a Muslim. Sad as it may be, in presidential politics it is better to be seen as Christian with some strange views than to not be seen as a Christian at all.
Despite the foolishness of Rev. Wright's comments, Americans seem to be fairly forgiving to Christian spiritual leaders who make insane statements. Rev. Wright implied that American foreign policy was partly responsible for 9/11; Jerry Falwell implied it was the fault of the "pagans, and the abortionists, and the feminists, and the gays." Pat Robertson thinks Hinduism is "demonic." John Hagee called the Roman Catholic Church the "great whore." And as AIDS destroys Africa, the Catholic Church is only thinking about maybe letting married couples use condoms, only if one of the spouses is HIV positive.
What is the possible benefit of people learning that Obama's former pastor is kind of crazy? People are learning that Obama had a pastor. The most recent NBC/WSJ national poll shows that 13% of respondents think Obama is a Muslim. Sad as it may be, in presidential politics it is better to be seen as Christian with some strange views than to not be seen as a Christian at all.
The Rich Irony, Part 3: Bill Nelson is a Liar
Senator Bill Nelson is a Clinton supporter and a Florida superdelegate. He has been making the rounds on all the talk shows pushing for a Florida re-vote, so that the Florida delegation could be seated at the convention. (Note: I do believe the people of Michigan and Florida are entitled to primaries in accordance with DNC rules.) His justification for why Florida should be able to hold a re-vote is that in Florida they "believe in the principle of one man one vote."
The rich irony is that Bill Nelson wants the Florida delegation to be seated so that he can cast his superdelegate vote. Each superdelegate vote is now worth about the same as 9,500 regular people's votes. Maybe what Bill Nelson meant to say was that in Florida they believe "all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
The rich irony is that Bill Nelson wants the Florida delegation to be seated so that he can cast his superdelegate vote. Each superdelegate vote is now worth about the same as 9,500 regular people's votes. Maybe what Bill Nelson meant to say was that in Florida they believe "all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
Governor Spitzer Should Resign
The early reports make it clear that Governor Spitzer is guilty of soliciting a prostitute and possibly other related crimes. If the reports are true, he should resign.
I personally think that prostitution should be legalized. The world's oldest profession has not nor will not go away simply because it is illegal. By forcing it underground, the law makes the occupation incredibly dangerous. Prostitutes, both male and female, are deprived basic protection by the law. They are put at a higher risk for being assaulted, infected, robbed, raped, extorted, or even enslaved. The nation should stop foolishly believing that by making something illegal you can stop individuals from doing it. Personally, I think we should follow the lead of Nevada by legalizing, taxing, and regulating the practice. But regardless of my personal feelings, prostitution is still a crime according to New York State law.
As a person charged with creating the law, Eliot Spitzer has no excuse to break it. If he believes it is OK for himself to employ the services of a prostitute, he should push to make it legal for all of his constituents. Since he has not, he is a hypocrite. He ran for governor as a hard-nose attorney general. He has broken his campaign promise and his inauguration oath: to uphold the law. Eliot Spitzer should resign from office and turn himself in.
I personally think that prostitution should be legalized. The world's oldest profession has not nor will not go away simply because it is illegal. By forcing it underground, the law makes the occupation incredibly dangerous. Prostitutes, both male and female, are deprived basic protection by the law. They are put at a higher risk for being assaulted, infected, robbed, raped, extorted, or even enslaved. The nation should stop foolishly believing that by making something illegal you can stop individuals from doing it. Personally, I think we should follow the lead of Nevada by legalizing, taxing, and regulating the practice. But regardless of my personal feelings, prostitution is still a crime according to New York State law.
As a person charged with creating the law, Eliot Spitzer has no excuse to break it. If he believes it is OK for himself to employ the services of a prostitute, he should push to make it legal for all of his constituents. Since he has not, he is a hypocrite. He ran for governor as a hard-nose attorney general. He has broken his campaign promise and his inauguration oath: to uphold the law. Eliot Spitzer should resign from office and turn himself in.
Barack Obama and the Whitest States in America
I've recently been examining the demographics of the states which have already voted, looking for any interesting patterns. I was not surprised to discover that Barack Obama has not lost a single state where over 18% of the population is African American. Given his strong support among African Americans, it would be nearly impossible for him to lose a contest where they make up a significant percent of the electorate.
What I did find interesting is that Obama has not lost a single state where 1% or less of the population is African American. Surprisingly, he has won Maine, Vermont, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Utah; all have populations which are 1% or less African American. Although, Barack Obama did lose New Hampshire, where slightly more than 1% of the population is African American.
A large African-American community or near lack of one are both good indicators of where Obama is most competitive. If the patterns continue, Obama should be expected to not only do well in North Carolina, which is 21.7% African-American, but also be strong in nearly all-white Montana and North Dakota.
*all numbers from US Census Bureau
General Election Map
These maps from SurveyUSA are very interesting. Since the general election is still months away, these polls should be taken with a grain of salt. While these numbers may not mean anything by the time the general election comes along in November, they could have a big impact on the Democratic primary. While it is nearly impossible for Hillary Clinton to win the most pledged delegates, she needs a very good argument to convince the superdelegates to overturn the will of the people. Her best, and probably only effective, argument is electability. Polls like this could be a real problem for her campaign.
Barack Obama vs. John McCain
Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain
Barack Obama vs. John McCain
Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain
Forget Pennsylvania, Look to May 6th
Hillary Clinton's three victories last night ensure that the Democratic primary will continue. Both the Clinton campaign and the media as a whole seem to be ignoring Wyoming (Saturday, March 8th) and Mississippi (Tuesday, March 11th). The fact that everyone assumes it is impossible for Clinton to win in either of these states somehow makes them not newsworthy. That said, all the focus now seems to be on Pennsylvania.
This is good news for Hillary Clinton. History, political establishment, demographics, and primary rules all favor Clinton. Clinton has long vacationed in the state. She has the endorsement of the governor. The state's population is solidly white, blue collar workers, and it is a closed primary. Hillary Clinton does need to win Pennsylvania, and all indicators suggest that she will.
If the Obama campaign is smart it will steal a page right out of Clinton's playbook: redefining the battleground. Obama should embrace the idea that the Democratic primary is far from over. This is now a long fight, and there will be no knock-out blows. Make it all about winning states, votes, and delegates. The Obama campaign should fully admit that they do not expect to win Pennsylvania, just like Clinton does not expect to win Mississippi. They should try to shift the talk from Pennsylvania on April 22nd to Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th.
Focusing attention on May 6th shouldn't be hard. North Carolina and Indiana are the 10th and 15th largest states, respectively. They have a total of 187 pledged delegates up for grabs. With over 29% of the remaining unselected 611 pledged delegates, May 6th is now the biggest day left on the calendar. North Carolina's demographics should heavily favor Obama, and Indiana's proximity to Illinois should be very helpful. If the Obama campaign is smart, we will hear "wait until May 6th" from Obama as often as we heard "wait until March 4th" from Clinton.
Barack Hussein Obama
Bill Cunningham, the Tennessee Republican Party, and numerous right wing outlets have taken to calling Barack Obama by his full name: Barack Hussein Obama. Sadly, I don't think it is to avoid confusing Senator Obama with all the other famous Barack Obamas.
Right wing pundits like to say "Hussein" because it is a Muslim name. They hope to convince people Barack Obama, a devout Christian, is in fact a secret Muslim. You see, Obama has been regularly attending church and reading the Bible for the past 20 years to create the illusion that he is a Christian. But thank God for Bill Cunningham and others. They saw through Obama's devious and elaborate decade-long ruse. Barack Obama's Arabic middle name proves that those countless hours spent in conversation with his pastor were all a charade.
I don't know what is saddest about this attempt to smear Barack Obama: The idea that Americans won't vote for him once the find out that his middle name is Arabic, or that the American people are too stupid to realize that both Barack and Obama are also Arabic names.
Right wing pundits like to say "Hussein" because it is a Muslim name. They hope to convince people Barack Obama, a devout Christian, is in fact a secret Muslim. You see, Obama has been regularly attending church and reading the Bible for the past 20 years to create the illusion that he is a Christian. But thank God for Bill Cunningham and others. They saw through Obama's devious and elaborate decade-long ruse. Barack Obama's Arabic middle name proves that those countless hours spent in conversation with his pastor were all a charade.
I don't know what is saddest about this attempt to smear Barack Obama: The idea that Americans won't vote for him once the find out that his middle name is Arabic, or that the American people are too stupid to realize that both Barack and Obama are also Arabic names.
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