House Drops COBRA Extension, Democrats Cede Moral High Ground on Health Care

Democrats claimed the fight for health care reform was a moral imperative. They would often cite the number of people who died in this country because of a lack of health insurance. Estimates vary, but that population is usually measured in the tens of thousands per year. When we at FDL opposed the health care bill on policy grounds, we were often attacked for not thinking about the thousands who will die because they lack health insurance.

Now, it appears all that talk about the moral imperative to save people's lives by making sure they had something called “health insurance” was nothing more than a talking point. Congressional Democrats today callously opted to ensure that thousands of American soon lose their health insurance by dropping the COBRA funding from a the so-called Jobs bill:
The House of Representatives passed a jobs bill shorn of multiple stimulative efforts today, barely getting enough votes from Blue Dogs more concerned about short-term deficits and political considerations than public health. In order to ensure passage, House Democrats took out an extension of the 65% COBRA study and funding for the states for Medicaid. Progressive Democrats tried to object to the rule bringing the bill to the floor, but their protest fell just short, with 36 Democrats opposing.

Therein lies the evidence that congressional Democrats just don't care about making sure every American has health insurance. They might say it is a sound and valuable principle, but it is clearly way down on their list of priorities. Democrats would rather fund a seemingly endless war half-way around the world. They are also far more concerned with getting a pretty CBO scores, which most American neither know about or understand. Keeping their seats and avoiding possible attacks from those oh-so-mean Republicans has been placed ahead of helping stressed and struggling Americans keep their health insurance. If they won't vote in the best interest of regular Americans, how can they ever expect the same people to vote for them?

Congratulations Democrats, you can no longer claim any moral high ground on the issue of health care.. It seems all that messaging about saving some of the uninsured was just clever PR trick, a handy cudgel to beat up opponents of your particular brand of health care legislation. In light of today’s action, it is hard to see it as part of a sincere commitment to help your less fortunate constituents.

Note: While not passing a COBRA extension, Congress did manage to vote for an incredibly expensive second engine for the F-35, which the military says it doesn't need and really doesn't want. We are literally wasting billions on hardware the military is asking Congress to cut while causing economically besieged Americans to lose their insurance.

Vermont to Design a Single Payer Health Care System

In Vermont, a bill that could possibly lead to a government-run single payer health care system is now state law. Republican Gov. Jim Douglas chose not to veto the bill, letting it become law without his signature.

At issue, Senate Bill 88 (PDF), creates a commission to design and create an implementation plan for three different health care systems. One of the options that the commission will design is a single payer health care system and one will be a health care system that includes the choice of a state-run public option along side private health insurance.
(2)(A) One option shall design a government-administered and publicly financed “single-payer” health benefits system decoupled from employment which prohibits insurance coverage for the health services provided by this system and allows for private insurance coverage only of supplemental health services.

(B) One option shall design a public health benefit option administered by state government, which allows individuals to choose between the public option and private insurance coverage and allows for fair and robust competition among public and private plans.

There is no guarantee that Vermont will implement either the single payer plan or the system with a public option, but it is a small step toward making that happen.

It is possible, if not likely, that federal law will be used to prevent the state from implementing a single payer system.

NV Sen: Reid Might No Longer Be a Dead Man Walking

For months, Sen. Harry Reid's poll numbers have been terrible, and he looked destined to lose his seat. Several polls by various organizations showed the Senate Majority Leader often trailing likely Republican opponents by 10 points or more. Yet recently, his poll numbers have gone from terrible to merely mediocre. A new Mason-Dixon poll sponsored by the “Las Vegas Review-Journal” has him almost tied with his possible Republican challengers Sue Lowden, Danny Tarkanian and Sharron Angle.

Reid 39%
Lowden 42%


Reid 42%
Angle 39%


Reid 41%
Tarkanian 42%


These are not good numbers. Reid is trailing two of the Republicans, although he’s within the poll’s margin of error of four percent. He is also well below 50 percent, which is a dangerous place for an incumbent. These poll numbers are just not as awful as they once were, making the race at least appear winnable for Reid.

Reid's chances of holding on to the seat are closely tied to who ends up winning the Republican primary on June 8. Currently, the primary is a toss-up. The same poll shows all three top Republicans have a chance of winning. Lowden is considered to be the strongest general election challenger, but the recent “chickens for checkups” flap and a possible FEC violation related to the donated use of a RV have hurt her. Angle is very conservative and currently polls the worst against Reid.

Lowden 30%
Angle 29%
Tarkanian 23%


The Republican Nevada Senate primary is one of many major primary elections taking place June 8, making that date the most important in politics between now and November.

California’s Proposed Top-Two Primary System Is Not the Same as “Blanket” Primary

The top-two vote getter “primary” system that will go into effect in California if voters approve of Proposition 14 on June 8 is not similar to a blanket primary. Despite what “The New York Times” would have you believe, they are two dramatically different systems that could produce significantly different results.
Such systems are not entirely new; California actually adopted a similar electoral method — a so-called blanket primary that allowed voting across party lines — in 1996. In 2000, it was invalidated by the United States Supreme Court after a challenge from several political parties. But the “top two” system in Washington State was affirmed by the same court in 2008.

This is very misleading. The top-two primary can produce contrasting results to a blanket primary.

With a blanket primary, all voters can vote in a primary regardless of party registration. A voter gets to select one candidate for each position. The voters can vote for a candidate of any party, and even choose candidates of different parties for different offices. The important thing is the result: The candidate running for the Democrat, Republican, Green Party, Libertarian, etc., nomination with the most votes gets that nomination. Democrats are still only competing against fellow Democrats and Republicans against fellow Republicans. This means you will still always have only one candidate officially representing each party in the general election. Independent candidates can still run in the general election.

With a top-two primary, this is not the case. A voter can select any candidate for any office, but only the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, go on to the general election ballot. This means you can easily have general elections between just two Democrats or just two Republicans. It is even possible that a crowded field of Republican candidates might cancel one another out, resulting in two Democrats on the general election ballot, even in Republican-leaning districts.

The example of Florida

In the Florida Senate race, with a blanket primary, Marco Rubio would likely win the most votes among the GOP candidates on the ballot. Kendrick Meek would likely get the most votes among the Democrats. Since Charlie Crist is running as an independent without a party affiliation, he would not even take part in the primary. The result would be a general election among Rubio, Crist and Meek. I’d put Rubio as the favorite to win with roughly 40 percent of the general vote.

Now, assume the state uses the top-two primary system. The results would be very different. All three candidates would be on the primary ballot. Only the top two, though, could go on to the general election. Given current polling, it’s likely the general would be a head-to-head match-up between Rubio and Crist. In this scenario, Crist is the favorite.

The design of election laws can have a huge impact on who gets elected. While the two systems might appear superficially similar, what they do is significantly different. A blanket primary still ensures the general election contains only one nominee from each party. The top-two system makes it possible that the general election would be a battle between two members of the same party.

CT Sen: Blumenthal Holds Huge Lead, McMahon’s Ex-Rival Says She Has No Chance

The past few weeks have not been good for Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, after the “New York Times” story about how he misstated his Vietnam-era military service. Yet it appears the news has done little or no damage to his prospects of winning the United States Senate seat being vacated by Chris Dodd. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, Blumenthal leads his likely Republican opponent, Linda McMahon, by 56 percent to 31 percent. The number is similar to an internal poll recently released by the Blumenthal campaign, which also showed him with a double-digit lead.

If the “New York Times” story can't send Blumenthal's poll numbers below 50 percent, it seems hard to imagine what could stop him from winning in November. Former GOP Rep. Rob Simmons, who recently ended his campaign for the Senate seat, might be right. When “National Review Online” asked him if he thought McMahon could win, he replied, “No, I don't think so at all.”

The Pro-Offshore Drilling Party Vs. the Pro-Offshore Drilling Party

The BP oil explosion is now probably the single greatest environmental disaster in American history. The disaster is still getting worse and will continue to do significant financial, ecological and public health damage for years and possibly decades. We are only beginning to see a small amount of its effects, and it’s already horrifying. The catastrophe has sent popular support for offshore drilling into a free fall. Yet in November, we’ll choose between the party promoting increased offshore drilling (Republican) and the party promoting increased offshore drilling (Democratic).

The leadership of both major parties still supports increased deep-water offshore drilling. Just today, Sen. John Kerry claimed that we must pass the Kerry-Lieberman energy bill because of the BP oil disaster, even though it would expand offshore drilling. President Obama still has not admitted his error and continues to back his new stance in favor of expanded offshore drilling. While some Democrats like Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) have been strong on opposing expansion, the party leadership is still fully behind it as part of comprehensive energy reform.

Republicans have not ended their love affair with increased drilling, either. The Republican Senate leadership so desperately wants more offshore drilling that it is fighting the effort to lift the liability cap on oil companies. This makes the government effectively subsidize companies’ risk with a massive corporate welfare program.

This is something seriously wrong with our democracy. Deep-water offshore oil drilling is currently causing perhaps the greatest environmental disaster in our nation’s history. Expanding offshore drilling no longer has plurality support in this country, and support will only decrease as more oil hits land. Yet both major parties in our two-party system are fighting to expand the cause of the crisis. No wonder popular opinion of both parties is so low.

Democrats are missing an attempt to separate themselves from Republicans and get on the right side of history and the electorate. Instead, they are making the election following this massive environmental disaster into this choice: between the party that supports increased offshore drilling and the party that supports increased offshore drilling.

It is not too late for Democrats to do the right thing. But I see no sign they plan to change course now.

FL Sen: Crist’s Independent Success Makes the Dem a Third-Party Spoiler

Eric Kleefeld at TPM wonders if Charlie Crist is becoming the “de facto Democrat in the Florida Senate race." Polling shows Crist in the lead with roughly a third of the vote, and likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek stuck around 15 percent.

I think this interpretation relies on an overwhelming major-party bias in most of our political thinking.
In the two months since Gov. Charlie Crist began building up to and ultimately did switch from Republican to independent, he appears to have overtaken Rep. Kendrick Meek as the de-facto Democratic candidate in the race against Republican Marco Rubio, according to the polls.

Crist is not becoming the “Democrat.” More Florida voters now view the Democratic Party in the same way they do third-party potential spoiler candidates. Often in American politics, a third-party or independent candidate will poll well, only to see support drop off heading into the actual election.

That is because the design of our first-past-the-post election system encourages tactical voting and creates the issue of the spoiler effect. People skip voting for their favorite candidate because they think voting for the second choice is the only way to prevent the candidate they really hate from getting elected. If Meek is seen as unelectable, it is not surprising that anti-Rubio and/or anti-Republican voters would gravitate to Crist as the lesser evil.

We have become so entrenched in our Democratic/Republican two-party political mindset that even when it breaks down, as it has in this race, we try to warp reality to fit the classic narrative. Most Americans view the major parties very negatively. People are unhappy about the last two years under Democratic control but still blame Republicans for the huge problems they caused when they had power. It shouldn't be surprising that a significant group of people wants to vote for non-Democratic, non-Republican alternatives as long as they are viable. We don't see this often because our election laws inherently favor having only two parties.

The success of the major parties has less to do with people having positive feelings about them and more to do with the fact that they have huge institutional advantages. We are not a country of Democrats and Republicans, just a country forced to choose between only those two. That’s when zero-sum politics comes into play. Some people will vote for Democrats simply because it is the only way to vote against Republicans and vice versa. When candidates are able to tear down each other’s favorable numbers dramatically, there is an opening for an alternative--only if voters think the alternative has a chance of winning.

Crist’s success will demand heavily on remaining a viable choice in voters’ minds. If he starts polling in third place, his support will drop rapidly. He needs Meek to be perceived as a spoiler, leaving himself as the only candidate someone could vote for to prevent Rubio from taking office. This is not about Crist becoming the de facto Democrat. It is about him becoming the de facto anti-Republican. The actual Democrat is now reduced to third-party spoiler status in most voters' minds.

CBS Poll: Voters Highly Negative on Both Parties

Americans’ opinion of the Democratic and Republican parties is now at its lowest level in decades, according to a new CBS News poll.
Favorable views of the Democratic Party dropped 20 points in the past year to 37 percent, according to the poll, conducted May 20 - 24. Last month, the party's favorability rating stood at 42 percent.

Fifty-four percent of Americans have a negative view of the Democrats, the poll shows.

This does not mean opinions about the Republican Party have improved as a result. It fares even worse. Only 33 percent of people hold a favorable view of the GOP, with 55 percent holding an unfavorable opinion and 12 percent undecided.

Assuming almost no one holds a favorable view of both major parties, this means that 30 percent of the country does not have a positive opinion of either party. That is a serious level of discontent with voters' choices in our two-party system.

Normally, when the majority is upset with the only two choices, you would expect a third choice to come along. But our system of single-member districts, plurality-winner elections and tough ballot-access laws creates a huge systematic barrier preventing third parties from reaching the critical mass needed to become viable. Instead, the disappointment with the establishment parties has recently been taking the form of several successful insurgent primary challengers.

This disgust with both parties is playing an important role in the Florida Senate race, where Charlie Crist is polling well as an independent against Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek. Crist leads in a recent poll with, incidentally, 30 percent of the vote.

ID Rep: Tea Partier Labrador Smokes GOP’s Young Gun

Last night, Tea Party candidate Raul Labrador defeated the Republicans’ hand-picked man, Vaughn Ward, to win the GOP nomination for Idaho's First Congressional District. Labrador won by a huge margin, taking 47.8 percent of the vote to Ward’s 38.8 percent, with most precincts reporting and three other candidates nabbing small shares of the vote. Labrador will take on Democrat Rep. Walt Minnick in the general election. Republicans view this district as one of the top pick-up targets for this cycle.

Ward was the establishment candidate in the race, with a large fund-raising advantage and the strong backing of Washington Republicans. He was one of the first NRCC "Young Guns" recruits. His campaign, though, suffered from a series of bizarre stumbles, including appearing at a debate to be unsure of the legal status of Puerto Rico. Labrador was the insurgent. He received the endorsement of the local Tea Party in Boise and campaigned as a strong conservative.

Labrador is also a man with some interesting views. According to the Tea Party survey he filled out, Labrador believes the following:

  • We should return our currency to the gold standard.

  • We should repeal the 17th Amendment, which would take away people's right to directly elect their United States senators.

  • We should withdraw the United States from the United Nations.


The NRCC failed to get its chosen candidate nominated in a crucial district. Minnick might benefit from Labrador’s upset victory, depicting him as outside the mainstream.

CA Primaries: Fiorina and Whitman Dominate With Double-Digit Leads

What do Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina have in common? They are both extremely wealthy Republican women who were once CEOs of large technology companies. They are both running for statewide office in California—Whitman for Governor, Fiorina for Senator. They are willing to spend huge sums of their own fortunes to win their respective Republican primaries, and they are far ahead of their rivals, according to new polls from SurveyUSA and PPP.

In the race for Senate, Fiorina has a double-digit lead in both polls over Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore.
SurveyUSA 5/21-23

Fiorina 46%
Campbell 23%
DeVore 14%

PPP 5/21-23

Fiorina 41%
Campbell 21%
DeVore 16%

Fiorina's numbers look strong heading into the June 8 primary. With California the most expensive state in the country for campaigns, she benefits from high name recognition, likely due to big advertising spending.

Both polls also have Meg Whitman with a double-digit lead over her strongest primary challenger, Steve Poizner. In fact, Whitman has a nearly two-to-one lead in the race.
SurveyUSA 5/21-23

Whitman 54%
Poizner 27%

PPP 5/21-23

Whitman 51%
Poizner 26%

The Republican primary is not the only big contest June 8 in California. Voters will decide whether to take a small step toward public financing of elections with Proposition 15. That’s fitting, given the incredible level of spending so far in this election cycle. The voters will also be deciding whether to overhaul the state's election law by adopting a top-two "primary" system, which may make campaigns even more expensive.

Idaho Primary Today: Ward and Labrador Top Five-Way GOP Rep Race

In today’s primary in Idaho, the big race is for Republicans in the 1st Congressional District to see who will take on conservative Democrat Walt Minnick. Minnick's seat is one of the top pick-up targets this year for the Republican Party.

The GOP primary is a five-way race among Harley Brown, Michael Chadwick, Raul Labrador, Allan Salzberg and Vaughn Ward. Labrador and Ward are the top two candidates. A recent Mason-Dixon poll had Ward leading with 31 percent of the vote compared with 28 percent for Labrador. That is within the poll's margin of error, and with 37 percent of likely voters undecided, either candidate could win.

Ward is the clear establishment favorite. The National Republican Campaign Committee recruited him into its young guns program for top recruits meant to win in swing districts. Yet a series of stumbles by Ward has hurt his campaign. For example, Ward apparently doesn't know and doesn't care that Puerto Rico is not an independent country but a territory of United States. Polls close in Idaho at 8 p.m. local time.

If it feels like every Tuesday brings another primary election, that is because we are deep in the season. Next Tuesday, June 1, features Alabama, Mississippi and New Mexico. June 8 will be a big night for results with contests in California, Iowa, Maine, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota and Virginia, and the runoff Senate primary in Arkansas. Utah holds its primary June 22, which will also see runoff primaries in Mississippi, North Carolina and South Carolina.

CT Sen: Simmons Cedes to Big-Bucks McMahon

Former Rep. Rob Simmons will no longer actively campaign for the Republican Senate nomination in Connecticut. By ending his campaign, Simmons all but assures that Linda McMahon will win the Republican primary (she already won the party’s official nod at its convention last week). McMahon is the former CEO of the World Wrestling Federation and has been able to finance much of her campaign from her personal wealth.

McMahon will likely face Attorney General Richard Blumenthal in the general election. A recent internal poll from the Blumenthal campaign has him leading McMahon by 15 points.

It looks like the anti-establishment, anti-Washington wave is continuing. Simmons was a prominent elected official in Connecticut for several years. He won several tough elections in the 2nd District and lost his seat in 2006 by an incredibly tiny margin. McMahon has depicted Simmons as a Washington insider and establishment figure, while framing herself as a political outsider.

McMahon's biggest asset in the race has been and will be her ability to spend big money in a very expensive media market.

WA Sen: Dino Rossi Will Likely Challenge Patty Murray

Republican Dino Rossi will likely enter the race to challenge Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA). Rossi is a well-known Republican in Washington State and has twice unsuccessfully run for Governor. But the GOP considers him a top recruit. More evidence: The DSCC has been flooding my inbox with anti-Rossi e-mails, indicating that Democrats think he is a legitimate challenger.

Rossi is the not the only Republican in the race. A host of other potential challengers includes Clint Didier (who just received Sarah Palin's endorsement), Don Benton and Paul Akers.

The important thing about Washington is that it does not hold party primaries in the traditional sense. The state recently adopted a top-two primary system. (California voters are likely to approve a ballot measure on June 8 that would enact a similar method.)

In this system, all candidates run on the same ballot in the August primary. The two candidates who get the most votes, regardless of party, are the only ones who appear on the general election ballot in November. In theory, the November election could be between just two Democrats or just two Republicans.

Given this system and the fact that the Republican field is crowded, Democrats should think about strategically running another Democratic candidate in the Senate primary in addition to Murray. With heavy competition among Republicans, it is possible they would split the Republican-leaning vote. Democrats could turn out their base, leaving Murray plus the additional Democrat as the top-two vote getters. If that happens, only the Democrats would appear on the November ballot. It would be a way for Democrats to make sure they hold on to the Senate by August, letting them focus their energy on other races in November.

Obama Seeks More Power: Proposes Majority Vote for Cuts, While Lieberman Keeps His Veto over Progressive Reform

President Obama is now asking for a modified version of the line-item veto, called the Reduce Unnecessary Spending Act of 2010 (PDF). This law would give the President the ability to force the United States Senate to take a guaranteed up-or-down vote on a set of budget cuts without amendments. This request by the President to gain more of the legislative branch's power is deeply disturbing on many levels.

The ever-expanding executive

First, it is another power grab by the ever-expanding executive branch. The Constitution clearly states that laws and decisions about spending should come from the legislative branch. The duty of legislating should be vested squarely with the duly elected legislators. The idea of the President writing bills, then forcing Congress to vote on them, is highly troubling. Should Congress become nothing more than a veto point on laws written by the President?

Perversions of the Constitution

If the Senate behaved like the Founders intended, the system would accommodate a President suggesting budget cuts--with Congress then having the prerogative to decide if it will write those suggestions into law. The administration’s proposal, however, is a blatant attempt to get around the filibuster and its 60-vote threshold without properly addressing the broken Senate rules at the heart of the problem.

The filibuster is close to the top of the long list of the Senate’s chronic problems. Not only is it not part of the Constitution, the Constitution is clear that all it should take to pass a law in the Senate is a simple majority. The original rules of the Senate did not even allow for a filibuster. The “unlimited debate rule” that is now used to stop the Senate from debating bills while it brings our government to a crawl is a clear perversion of our democracy.

The filibuster is a perversion of majority rule and representative democracy. It is causing endless problems and prevents Congress acting in the manner it should. Yet the solution is not another perversion of the Constitution, awkwardly grafting expanded powers for the executive branch onto this broken system. We don't need the President to carve out a niche so that select laws he writes avoid the filibuster. If we believe the threat of the filibuster is preventing Congress from cutting wasteful, redundant or corrupt programs, then the solution is to eliminate the filibuster, not to give new powers to the President.

Joe Lieberman gets to keep his anti-progressive veto

From a progressive point of view, this creates another way around the 60-vote filibuster threshold, which is only meant to be used for slashing government programs or cutting taxes. (The other way is budget reconciliation.) Republican goals would require only 51 votes in the Senate, which would be fine except it leaves in place the huge 60-vote hurdle for anything progressives want.

This stacks the deck against progressive change. Filibusters from Republicans and conservative Democrats like Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln and Ben Nelson could still stop reformers’ goals, such as ending “don't ask don't tell” and enacting ENDA, immigration reform, EFCA and more. It looks like this law couldn't even help deficit-reducing ideas like drug re-importation, a public option, Medicare buy-in and closing tax loopholes.

A simple majority is the solution

I'm inclined to agree with the underlying thinking behind this law. The filibuster is a corrupting interest in the Senate. The ability of one Senator to clog our entire government and of 41 Senators to kill a law is causing huge problems, including preventing the elimination of wasteful spending. But the solution is not to enact another simple-majority carve-out rule in the Senate. The solution is not to vest even more power in an ever- expanding executive branch. Don't pile one corruption of the intent of the Constitution on top of another, like some perverse stack of pancakes, and pretend you are fixing something.

If the filibuster is preventing legislative changes, then eliminate the filibuster. Restore the Senate as the majority-rule body it was meant to be, preventing a handful of Senators from abusing the rules to protect earmarks. Don't just come up with convoluted special tricks to get around the Senate's broken, byzantine rules.

Expanding the power of the executive branch is terrible enough by itself. But redesigning the rules to make it easier to advance conservative goals while inhibiting progressive reform is an unbelievably disappointing request by a Democratic President.

How Stupid Election Law Design Gave Republicans HI-01

Republican candidate Charles Djou won the HI-01 special election with 39.5% of the vote because two Democrats, Colleen Hanabusa with 30.8% and Ed Case with 27.6%, split the Democratic vote almost down the middle. This is a great example of how the design of our election laws can greatly affect our government; a poorly-designed electoral system like Hawaii’s can result in winners that don't best represent the will of the electorate. Using almost any other election system other than Hawaii’s, Djou would likely have lost. There is something very wrong with a democracy when political party A gets 58% of the vote, the political party B gets only 40% of the vote, yet political party B is the winner.

If Hawaii had allowed for a traditional primary for special elections or even a nominating caucus system it is highly unlikely Djou would have won against a single Democrat. The whole point of primaries is to allow parties to put forward only one candidate so as to prevent exactly this kind of vote splitting. Voting splitting is a huge problem when you have a single member district with a plurality winner – a system referred to as “first past the post.”

If they had used instant runoff voting Colleen Hanabusa would likely have been the second choice of most of Case's voters and as a result, would have won. If Hawaii had a top two runoff election when no candidate got 50% of the vote, like they do in the state of Georgia, Hanabusa would probably have defeated Djou in that following head to head matchup. If as a country we had multi-member Congressional districts with proportional representation 60% of the seats would have gone to Democrats and only 40% to Republicans.

This Hawaii special election offers a perfect example of how important effective election law is to a truly representative government. Observers should be spurred to deeper thought and action about improving our election laws. At the very least it should encourage Hawaii to replace its incredibly stupid no-primary “first past the post” system for special elections with something better.

Want Rand Paul Off the Ballot? We've Got a Primary System for That

California voters are likely to adopt Proposition 14 on June 8. It would replace partisan primaries with a “Louisiana primary,” where only the two candidates winning the most votes would move on to the general election, regardless of their party.

The design of election laws can radically affect the results of an election. A top-two system would have had a huge influence on two hotly contested May 18 Senate primary races, in Arkansas and Kentucky. If these two states used this system, with no change in turnout or votes, neither of the Republican victors, Rand Paul and John Boozman, would have made it to the general election ballot. Looking at the election results:

Arkansas Primary (results)





































DemocratTotal Votes
Bill Halter145,954
Blanche Lincoln139,323
D.C. Morrison42,565
Republican
John Boozman74,602
Jim Holt24,641
Gilbert Baker16,470

Kentucky Primary (results)





























DemocratTotal Votes
Jack Conway228,904
Dan Mongiardo225,159
Republican
Rand Paul206,960
Trey Grayson124,840

In Arkansas, the top-two vote getters were Democrat Blanche Lincoln and Democrat Bill Halter. In Kentucky, Democrat Jack Conway and Democrat Dan Mongiardo were the top two. Republicans Rand Paul in Kentucky and John Boozman in Arkansas each finished third in the total number of votes. Under the new system, neither would have made it to the general election, even though both are currently favored to win.

The important thing about this analysis is that it assumes the turnout and vote would be the same. Clearly that would not happen under the new rules. For example, Kentucky has a closed-party primary, so independents did not vote on Tuesday. If voters understand how the “primary” took on a radically different role, the turnout would probably change. Also, candidates would run different campaigns.

If California adopts the top-two primary system, eventually candidates and voters will adjust their behavior until they achieve a new equilibrium. But what might happen in those first few elections could be extremely interesting. People get very locked into voting behavior and are probably used to thinking of primary elections as unimportant, unless there is a heated race on their side. Election results in 2012, with the new primary system and new districts, could be very strange if people don't internalize that the June “primary” has become more like the actual general election.

California Heading To Major, Bizarre Election Law Change

The state of California will likely undergo major changes to its election laws, according to the recent polls from Public Policy Institute of California (PDF). Proposition 14 is currently polling at 60 percent in support and 27 percent opposed, ahead of the June 8th vote.

The ballot initiative would significantly alter the way state office and Congressional elections are carried out, starting in 2012. Unfortunately, the state's voter guide gives it a deceptive name and summary: “Elections. Increases Right to Participate in Primary Election.”

What it would really do is produce a “Louisiana primary,” were any candidate can complete with any party label attached to his or her name, and all voters voting in the same primary. The top two total vote-getters, regardless of party, would be the only two candidates on the general election ballot in November.

This is not a primary in the way most Americans think of the term. Party members don't get to vote on who will represent their party in the general election with only one official nominee from each party. Prop. 14 would stop parties from using any means to select their own official nominee to put on the ballot.

This would effectively move the general election to June, with a runoff election many months later, in November. This system in theory could produce a November election between two Republicans, two Democrats, a Republican and a Green, two independents with no party affiliation, etc... Although similar systems have been used in Washington and Louisiana, independents and third parties almost never make it to the general election ballot in the rest of America.

Several Major Problems

There is a serious funding challenge when the general election and the runoff are so far apart. When runoff elections happen right away, via instant run off voting, or withing just a couple of weeks, they are part of the same campaign. This proposition will force candidates to run two district-wide campaigns, almost half a year apart. This could make running for office more expensive. Increasing that cost is not attractive, since we lack public financing of elections and now allow almost unlimited corporate spending. At the very least, the two elections should happen with in weeks of each other if not at the same moment with an instant runoff.

Without an official party nomination process, you can produce very strange results, thanks to vote splitting and strategic voting. Picture a very Republican-leaning district: It has 80,000 Republican voters and 60,000 Democratic voters. Let's say four people decide to run as Republicans and two as Democrats. Vote splitting could result in a general election, in this Republican district, between two Democrats.


















































CandidateVotesTop Two
Republican A25000
Republican B22000
Republican C20000
Republican D13000
Total Republican80000
Democrat A33000X
Democrat B27000X
Total Democrat60000

(Note: This would not be a problem with instant runoff voting election instead of a top-two runoff. Assuming all Republican voters made their second and third choices other Republicans, a Republican would win.)

The major and minor parties in California oppose Prop. 14. It eliminates the core function of a political party: to put forward a single nominee who best represents the party's views. Backers who have pumped big money into it include the California Chamber of Commerce (via California Business PAC), Health Underwriters, Hewlett Packard and Blue Shield of California. The fact that the Chamber of Commerce is supporting a ballot initiative that could make running for office even more expensive, and more in need of big money donors, is not reassuring.

Long term, Prop. 14 will probably have a much better impact on the future of California than anything else on the ballot June 8th. It is unfortunate that while the state considers changing its election laws, it is not adopting superior systems that could more accurately reflect the opinions of the voters. It is also unfortunate that the ballot does a very poor job of explaining what would result from adopting it.

Avalanche Of Evidence: Why We Need Clean Money in Elections

Recent events give us four powerful examples of why we desperately need to take back our elections from the big-money interests that are buying our politics. The solution is to clean up election funding through voluntary public financing, so that candidates can run without needing to grovel for donations from wealthy individuals and corporate lobbies. These recent incidents show how strong the opposition is to this basic guarantee of fairness.

1) Big Oil Creates Power

While the BP oil disaster continues to worsen in the Gulf of Mexico, Republicans are demanding we give BP



a bailout and protect its profits with a massive corporate welfare program, by keeping the relatively low liability cap for offshore drilling. Republicans are fighting to make sure BP and other oil companies will never pay for the economic damage they may cause.

2) Wall Street Bullies the Senate

The car-dealer lobby convinced Senators to support an amendment that would have exempted dealers from new consumer financial protections. That was until the legislators met the bigger and more powerful Wall Street lobbyists. They convinced Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) to withdraw the amendment in order to protect financiers from greater regulation.

3) Mysterious Millions Surface in Arkansas

Americans for Job Security, a stealthy but potent group, spent $1.5 million on ads opposing Bill Halter in the Arkansas Democratic primary. No one knows who funds them (they’re officially a trade association, and are not required to disclose that under current election laws). They have a track record since the late 1990s of hitting their targets with big-money ads—and they want to make sure Blanche Lincoln stays a Senator.

4) Corporate Reprisal Terrifies Members of Congress

Finally, Democrats are offering a weak bill in response to the Citizens United ruling, trying to rein in big corporate spending in elections. CQ Politics is reporting that Democrats may water it down even more, so it does not anger those corporations.
Democratic top brass agree on the urgent need for a legal bulwark against what could be an unchecked flood of spending by outside groups this election season after a divided high court ruled in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, striking down many restrictions on televised political advertising.

But while Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and most of her lieutenants want to pass the measure before the Memorial Day recess, Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer is urging caution. The Maryland Democrat’s camp is on edge that without some targeted fixes, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Rifle Association, in particular, will oppose the measure and exact political revenge on moderate Democrats who supported it.

If the Chamber of Commerce doesn't hate the bill, then the bill isn't working. The whole point is to reduce the ability of big corporations, like those that are part of the Chamber of Commerce, to buy our elections. The point isn’t to make them like it.

We Need a Solution

It is amazing just how much control big oil and Wall Street have over the US Senate. During unprecedented massive disasters cause by their own abject failure (big oil with the BP explosion, Wall Street with the financial meltdown), they can still count on a huge number of Senators to protect them from being held accountable.

As long as candidates need to raise millions from private entities to run a viable campaign, I don't see how Congress can put the needs of millions of Americans first. That is why we need voluntary public financing of elections, so candidates can reach voters without begging for money from the rich. The bill to address this in Congress, the Fair Elections Now Act, seems to be going nowhere. On June 8, the voters of California might take a tiny step in the right direction if they pass Proposition 15 to provide public financing of Secretary of State elections. Long term, until financing is fixed, a host of other problems will affect our country.

DUI and Love Child From an Affair: No Problem, Staten Island GOP Says

This is a head-scratcher moment that can only harm the Republican Party's image. From SILive:
In a bombshell announcement, the Staten Island Republican Party executive committee last night endorsed former GOP Rep. Vito Fossella to run against Rep. Michael McMahon (D-Staten Island/Brooklyn) this fall.

Do you remember former Rep. Fossella? He was the guy who dropped his re-election bid in 2008 after being arrested for driving under the influence. As he was driving from his girlfriend’s house at the time, the news came out that he fathered a love child from the extramarital affair.

Is a disgraced former Congressman really the best nominee the New York Republicans can find? In this anti-Washington, anti-incumbent year, I can't imagine a worse background for a potential challenger.

The news comes right on the heels of Rep. Mark Souder’s (R-IN) decision to resign because of an extramarital affair. Not a good one-two PR punch for that Republican "family values" image. Perhaps in two years, Souder will figure it’s okay to follow in Fossella’s footsteps and try to take back his seat.

California Likely Voters Almost Deadlocked on Legalizing Cannabis

In November, Californians will vote on a ballot measure to legalize, regulate and tax cannabis. A new Public Policy Institute of California (PDF) poll shows a very small plurality supports the measure. Forty-nine percent of likely voters favor legalizing cannabis while 48 percent oppose it.

Not surprisingly, younger voters and San Francisco Bay-area residents are more likely to support the measure. There’s a strong gender divide, with 54 percent of men favoring legalization and only 42 percent of women agreeing. Latinos have high opposition to legalization, with 62 percent opposed and 37 percent in favor.

The poll finds that among all adults, support for legalization is actually lower, with only 48 percent in favor and 49 percent opposed (sampling error is between two and three percent). This seems improbable, given that older Americans are more likely to turn out in midterm elections, and senior citizens are the group most strongly in favor of keeping marijuana criminalized.

Compared with earlier polls, the PPIC survey shows dramatically lower support for legalizing cannabis among all adults. In April, a SurveyUSA poll of California adults found 56 percent favoring, 42 percent opposing. A CBS News poll, also from April, showed that 55 percent of adults from Western states favor legalization, while only 41 percent oppose it. A Field Poll from April 2009 found that 56 percent of registered voters (PDF) in California favored legalization and taxation of marijuana for recreational use.

PPIC has a very strong track record in California, but there seems to be something counter-intuitive about the results when contrasting all likely voters with all adults. That part has the feeling of being an outlier.

This is the worst poll for cannabis legalization in California so far, but it still shows that likely voters slightly favor it. With a divided electorate, the ballot initiative could go either way in November. Its fate will depend heavily on the quality of the public outreach, framing and get-out-the-vote efforts from both sides.

10% Unemployment: What Incumbents Should Fear

If anyone in the political class is wondering why a strong anti-establishment, anti-Washington and anti-incumbent mood is speeding through the electorate, let me give you one hint: 10 percent unemployment.

People are losing their jobs, their 401ks, their homes and their health insurance. Americans don't think Washington is dealing with the problem, and they are completely right. Members of the House and Senate are doing next to nothing to help average people during this economic downturn. Instead, they have turned Congress into a cynical, elaborate piece of theater where they open by pretending to care for put-upon Americans. The final act is almost always the same: Well-connected corporations win.

The Senate has been playing this game for a long time. While it upset people before, in this new economic environment, voters are downright angry. Ten percent unemployment and blatant behavior to benefit bad corporate actors make a toxic brew. The bank bailout, resulting in even bigger profits and bigger bonuses for blundering Wall Street firms, was a step too far. In good times, people suspected Senators of caring too much about big business; now people think that’s all they care about.

If incumbents want to keep their seats, they need to take concrete action to improve the lives of regular Americans. Dancing around pretending like you will, only to sell out to a big industry willing to make large campaign donations, won't cut it.

Democrats have tools at their disposal, like reconciliation, to push legislation that could make concrete improvement in regular Americans' lives, despite Republican obstructionism. The question is, will Democrats let their misdirected fear of the right-wing noise machine or their desire to befriend big-money interest groups stop them from delivering for the voters?

We will see if Democrats got the message from Tuesday’s election. What they should fear most is not name calling by Republicans or the wrath of a few unpopular large companies but double-digit unemployment.

Bailouts Unlimited: Republicans Demand Corporate Welfare for Oil Companies

Republicans who want to destroy our social safety net, meant to help regular Americans when they fall on hard times, are fighting tooth and nail to protect corporate profits. GOP Senators James Inhofe (R-OK) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) are trying to stop attempts to lift the liability cap on oil companies’ offshore drilling.

Currently, the laughably low $75 million cap privatizes the profit but socializes the risk of a catastrophe like we are now seeing in the Gulf of Mexico. Democrats want to raise the cap and by doing so, force companies to bear full financial responsibility for their actions.

The Republican argument against raising the cap is that without corporate welfare and the promise of a government bailout if anything goes wrong, some companies might find the risky business no longer profitable enough to undertake:
Inhofe also said that raising the cap by such a drastic amount would hurt independent oil producers, since all but the largest oil companies could weather such a large liability cap.

That is an amazing statement from a supposed believer in the “free market.” It’s also complete nonsense. Smaller companies don't need to weather the liability alone. They can buy insurance to spread the risk. If, without a corporate welfare program, a company no longer takes an action because the cost of insuring against potential liability makes that action unprofitable, that is a good thing. That is how the market should work, without moral hazard. We don't want companies taking foolish risks that are only profitable because the taxpayers have promised a bailout if anything goes wrong.

The Republicans love corporate welfare, privatized profit, socialized losses and endless bailouts. They fought against universal single-payer government-run health insurance for middle-class families, but they think a de facto version for oil companies is a great idea. That’s what the liability cap is: the government insuring corporations against their own risky behavior.

If anyone should be protected from the harshest aspects of the free market, it’s regular people, not corporations. I support single-payer health insurance because the market should not be choosing who lives and dies, who gets treatment and who suffers. I'm more than happy, though, for the market to decide which corporations live and die. Let the market decide which actions by oil companies are too risky to be profitable, and which companies should go bankrupt for their mistakes.

Senate Republicans want a government welfare program to protect oil companies from the market and socialize their risk. The poor oil companies need a government safety net. The health of the average person can be subject to the whims of the free market.

Republicans actually support "socialism," government-run insurance and bailouts--for big companies. Will crusading for unlimited benefits for irresponsible oil powers be a winning campaign message for Republicans in the midterm elections? If Democrats can't capitalize on this ridiculous hypocrisy, they don't deserve to win either.

Primary Upsets: Anti-Establishment Triple Play

Tuesday was a bad day for Washington establishment candidates and a bad day for conservative Democrats. All three establishment favorites performed poorly in the May 18 elections.

The most powerful Washington Republican, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), endorsed Trey Grayson for Senate. Despite being the home state Senator, McConnell's endorsement carried little weight in Kentucky. Rand Paul completely crushed Grayson, 59 percent to 35 percent.

President Obama also fared badly as an endorser. Along with the President, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Gov. Ed Rendell gave the nod to former Republican Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. Joe Sestak still managed to defeat him by a healthy margin.

Incumbent conservative Democrat Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas also had a bad showing despite the strong backing of Obama and the DSCC. She has been forced into a runoff against Bill Halter. Halter came very close to winning a plurality of votes, and stands a very good chance of winning the runoff.

The three Senate candidates with strong backing from their national party leadership--Grayson, Specter and Lincoln--did poorly. It was a good night for insurgent candidates, who did better than the polls projected.

So far, 2010 is an unfavorable year for establishment candidates. Marco Rubio forced Florida Gov. Charlie Crist to leave the Republican Party. Bob Bennett (R-UT) lost his party's nomination at the state party convention. Mike Oliverio defeated incumbent Rep. Allan Mollohan (D-WV) in the primary. We’ll see if this is a pattern in upcoming primaries.

You Chose a Good Day to Resign, Mark Souder

Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN-3) is resigning from office because of an affair with a female staffer, according to Fox News. I applaud him on his great timing—in the middle of an election day—to try to prevent yet another tale of Republican infidelity from topping the headlines.
Multiple senior House sources indicated that the extent of the affair with the 45-year-old staffer would have landed Souder before the House Ethics Committee.

"It is with great regret I announce that I am resigning from the U.S. House of Representatives as well as resigning as the Republican nominee for Congress in this fall's election. I believe it is the best decision for my family, the people of northeast Indiana and for our country," Souder plans to say, according to the statement obtained by Fox News.

Today is probably the biggest primary election of this cycle with several high-profile Senate contests. Those elections should dominate the news this evening and tomorrow. The breaking story about Connecticut Democratic Senate hopeful Richard Blumenthal falsely claiming to have served in Vietnam is also getting a lot of press coverage. It would be hard to imagine a better day to announce that you are resigning in disgrace and see the story quickly buried. Rep. Souder, you chose well.

Having Souder's story lightly reported and quickly replaced by bigger news is the best the GOP can hope for. What Republicans don't want is for the media to connect the dots and start pointing out how several prominent Republicans have gotten into trouble recently because of infidelity, such as Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) and Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC). Souder's seat is as red as his face, and should easily remain in Republican hands.

Dem Senate Upsets: Voting Out the Weak Links?

Depending on how the elections go today, the spinmeisters will work their story-telling magic in various ways. If Joe Sestak wins in Pennsylvania and Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas fails to gain more than half the vote, forcing her into a runoff against challenger Bill Halter, some will push the narrative that liberals are purging their party, just like Republicans. But that’s an oversimplification that does not fit reality. Let's not forget the primary victory by conservative Democrat Mike Oliverio in West Virginia last week. This is not a purge over ideology but over honesty. It is not reckless anger, it is pragmatism.

Arlen Specter is not a moderate or even conservative Democrat. He was a Republican for decades. He endorsed and was endorsed by George W. Bush. He was instrumental in advancing the Bush agenda. He did switch parties, but not because he had a great ideological conversion. He switched because he was desperate to remain a Senator no matter what. After the Republican Party rejected him, Specter figured Democrats would embrace him the moment he flip-flopped on dozens of positions. This behavior is not “moderate” or “centrist” but proof of the desire to hold on to power. This lack of conviction is at the heart of the anti-incumbent, anti-Washington, anti-establishment mood of the country.

If Blanche Lincoln fails, it’s not because she’s a centrist. She doesn’t even stand with the Democratic Party on procedure votes. She promises constituent groups that she supports bills they care about, only to reverse herself once the legislation threatens the profits of corporations. On her own website, she claimed to support a public option on health care.On the floor of the Senate, she trumpeted that she’d filibuster any bill that included it. Lincoln also flip-flopped on the labor priority of EFCA, opposing it after voting for it in 2007.

Lincoln is now dedicating her time to providing the ultra-wealthy with a huge tax break that would add $250 billion to the deficit. During an economic downturn, she fights to make sure that rich heirs to large estates face a lower tax burden. This tax cut would not help 99 percent of the people of Arkansas. Lincoln’s focus on helping the rich has made her extremely unpopular in her state.

Neither Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania nor Bill Halter is a hard-core progressive. They are simply Democrats who believe in the general principles of the party. They don't have a history of saying anything and doing anything to hold on to office.

Both Lincoln and Specter are bad choices in this anti-Washington, anti-establishment election environment. Sestak and Halter poll as substantially better candidates against the likely Republican opponents. They both have a better chance of keeping seats in Democratic hands. They’re slightly more in line with Democratic beliefs, and they increase the odds of a Democrat winning. You can't call it a "purge" when voters are making what should be considered the strategic, smart decision.

Could Lack of Enforcement Cause a BP-Like Disaster for Health Care?

The unfolding oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is a perfect example of how regulations are only as good as the dedication of the cops on the beat. Soon, we’ll be seeing this with healthcare, too. “The New York Times” has an article about how the health insurers are trying to game the new health care law, by trying to shape how state and federal agencies structure the new regulations. The power of the insurers to influence how the new law is enforced exposes the core weakness of trying to enact universal healthcare only through private insurance companies.
Insurance lobbyists are trying to shape regulations that will define “unreasonable” premium increases and require them to pay rebates to consumers if the companies do not spend enough on patient care.

For their part, consumer groups say they worry that their legislative victories could be undone or undercut by the rules being written by the federal government and the states.

The health care overhaul provides a classic example of how the impact of a law depends on regulations needed to interpret it. The rules deal with relatively technical questions but go to the heart of the law, pushed through Congress by President Obama and Democratic leaders with no Republican support.

I'm relatively confident that President Obama and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius will work hard to implement the regulations. Not only do they believe in the law but they are personally and politically invested in trying to make it work—no matter how inherently flawed it is.

The bigger issue is, will whichever Republican replaces Obama as President be nearly as dedicated to tough enforcement of “Obamacare”? Republicans have a pathological aversion to regulation, and a private healthcare system is only as good as its enforcement.

Watching the unfolding BP oil-spill disaster is an example of how protection laws become worthless, depending on who’s in the White House. The Bush Administration was very close to the oil companies and appointed individuals to Mineral Management Service who had no desire to enforce regulations. The MMS let offshore oil-drilling operators take a pass on oversight.

The result is a giant blob of oil destroying one of America's best fisheries. State governments also play a role, when enforcement is left to that level.

Implementation of the health care law doesn’t start until 2014, so that could be the job of a Republican President, possibly one who might even have run against it. That is not a recipe for reining in large and well-connected for-profit health insurers. Public programs like Medicare are very difficult for Republicans to eliminate, but the GOP finds systematically ignoring regulations relatively easy.

HI-1: Republican Charles Djou Set to Win Special Election over Split Democratic Majority

The latest poll from Merriman River has Republican Charles Djou set to win the special election May 22 for Hawaii's First Congressional District due to a split among Democratic voters between two candidates. From Civil Beat:
Djou leads with 39.5 percent of the vote, followed by former Congressman Ed Case and Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who are tied at 25.5 percent.

Djou is likely to win this election but will not be the best expression of the constituents’ will. The district is very liberal and tends to vote overwhelmingly Democratic. In fact, an overwhelming majority of those polled say they want a Democrat to win.

But that might not happen because of how Hawaii runs its special elections. It has no primaries and runs a free-for-all election, with whoever gets a plurality declared the winner. If there had been a primary, there’d be only one Democrat in the race, and without a party split, that Democrat would likely win. If they used instant runoff voting, or even a top-two runoff if no candidate wins more than 50 percent, Djou would probably lose. The overwhelming left-leaning constituency would coalesce around one Democrat.

This special election shows how election structure has a huge effect on our government. We should strive for a system where election results best represent the will of the voters. You can easily modify the rules to make sure candidates representing the majority of the voters actually win, instead of letting a minority choice squeak by with a small plurality.

Djou’s projected victory will probably be short-lived. He will likely lose in November when a standard primary followed by a general election means he will face only one Democrat.

NC Sen: Endangered Burr Tough Fight Against Dem Opponent, Says New Poll

For a long time, Richard Burr (R-NC) has been viewed as the most endangered incumbent Republican Senator, and the news for him has just gotten worse. A new PPP poll has him statistically tied with likely Democratic challenger, North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. Burr holds a slightly stronger lead over the other Democrat in the race, former state senator Cal Cunningham, but Burr is still well below 50 percent.
Marshall 42%
Burr 43%
Undecided 15%

Cunningham 39%
Burr 44%
Undecided 17%

The poll is good news for Marshall, who will probably face a primary runoff election against Cunningham in a few weeks. Marshall not only got significantly more votes than Cunningham in the first round of voting, but can now use this poll to make a strong case for why she is the more electable Democrat.

Burr is the only incumbent Republican Senator who is likely to lose in the general election. (Most Republican Senators who saw themselves facing serious general election challenges this cycle chose not to seek re-election.) If the poll numbers continue to look good for Marshall, expect North Carolina to be a big focus of Democrats looking to make up for expected losses elsewhere.

House Dems Give Up On Governing

For the first time in more than 30 years, House Democrats are considering not making a budget resolution. They’ve decided to give up completely on governing despite having an overwhelming majority.

Why should we care about this non-binding budget resolution? Because you need a budget resolution to use reconciliation, which remains the main option to pass progressive legislation against Senate Republican and conservative Democratic obstructionism. From Politico:
“We can show that we can govern at the same time that we have a different form of budget resolution,” Spratt said. “I think we say to the American people, ‘Look at the substance rather than the form.’”

Spratt says he’s still leading the charge to write a “traditional” budget resolution. House leaders haven’t yet pulled the plug on the process, but there’s little appetite for a floor fight among the Democratic rank and file. And neither Spratt nor his party’s leaders have found a way to please conservative Blue Dogs who want to cut domestic spending and progressives who don’t.

This is just pathetic. It’s the ridiculous hope that simply by ignoring problems, they will magically go away.

House Democrats might as well let the Senate act alone. Without reconciliation instructions, every bill that passes from now on will be what the Senate says it must be. It gives complete veto power to the 41 Republican senators and conservative Democrats like Joe Lieberman and Blanche Lincoln.

The Democrats are playing right into the Republicans’ game plan. Republicans hope to beat Democrats by making them look incompetent and incapable of governing. They have done this by adopting a strategy of endless obstructionism that has shut down legislating and prevented Democrats from passing laws. It has worked beautifully to undermine public trust in elected Democrats.

Instead of using the best tool at their disposal, reconciliation, to overcome Republican/ConservaDem anti-democratic and anti-Constitutional filibusters, House Democrats have instead chosen to hide in the corner like scared children.

Regular Americans are hurting. Reconciliation is a tool that Democrats could use to help millions in many ways. The Local Jobs For Americans Act could easily be passed using reconciliation. So could a measure that would reduce drug prices for seniors while reducing the deficit. Reconciliation could also be used to lose the unfair tax loopholes for Wall Street hedge fund managers and shift the money to fund health insurance, prevent massive teacher layoffs, renovate old schools to create new jobs, and more.

Instead, House Democrats are planning to unilaterally disarm. The Republican goal was to make the American people turn against the Democrats by stopping the Majority from providing effective government solutions in face of a crisis. The Democratic response has been to back down and give up. Republicans no longer need to prove that Democrats are incapable of governing. The Democrats are doing that job for them.

I strongly urge House Democrats to reconsider. Use reconciliation and push through the changes you promised Americans. Show them why you deserve to return to office in November.

Party On! The GOP Is the New Hotbed of Insurgency

There is a meme that the Republican Party has a top-down, authoritarian structure where potential candidates patiently wait their turn for nominations. On the other hand, the Democratic Party hosts a divided, disorganized coalition. Yet this year, it’s the GOP that is seeing a roiling, rebellious bottom-up movement with little deference to leadership.

We have seen not one but two prominent Republicans, Sen. Arlen Specter and Gov. Charlie Crist, forced to leave the party because of insurgent primary challengers. Crist is a relatively popular governor who has not strayed far off the reservation, and polls well against a likely Democratic opponent. It is almost impossible to imagine a similarly popular Democrat getting so completely overwhelmed by a more liberal opponent that he or she would bail from the party before the primary.

On Saturday, long-term Senator Bob Bennett (R-UT) got booted at his party’s convention, losing the possibility of running in the primary for the nomination. The grassroots kicked him out of his own party, even though he is one of the most conservative members of the Senate.

Next Tuesday is the Kentucky primary. Polls indicate that Rand Paul will likely beat the establishment choice, Trey Grayson. Grayson was endorsed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, probably the most powerful Republican in both D.C. and his home state of Kentucky. Grayson has the backing of the state and national party but is struggling to win the nomination. Even the recent Republican presidential nominee, John McCain, is seriously worried about losing to an insurgent candidate.

We are seeing a major shakeup on the Republican side caused, in part, by the evolving power of their grassroots members. The GOP is not a top-down party when the actual top of the party, Sen. McConnell, can't secure the nomination for a classic conservative on his home turf.

The Democrats now emerge as the party of strong bosses. The biggest recent primary win against an establishment candidate was Ned Lamont's defeat of Joe Lieberman. Even then, the Democratic establishment protected Lieberman, in opposition to the party base.

Similar challenges in the 2010 cycle are few. The only up-and-coming Democrats currently showing momentum in the polls: Joe Sestak, who might beat Sen. Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania primary, in defiance of the party establishment, but that is only because Specter is a lifelong Republican who switched parties to save his seat. And Bill Halter, who has a shot at taking out Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Specter is exactly the type of fake Democrat that primaries are supposed to keep from getting the nomination; Lincoln is not only an extremely conservative Democrat, but has little chance of winning the general election.

On the left, insurgent candidates struggle to beat even the most egregiously unprogressive establishment candidates. On the right, establishment candidates have left the party in fear of just the possibility of a primary challenger. Even those who are slightly too moderate for the local party are being taken down.

Unfair UK Electoral System Turns Voters’ Choice Upside Down

The results from the United Kingdom House of Commons elections May 6 are a beautiful demonstration of how absurd an electoral system they and we have. Like the United States, the UK has single-member districts where the winner is whoever gets the largest plurality, regardless of how small that plurality is. It’s called “first past the post” (note: a few places in America, like Georgia, have general-election runoffs). The result is governments that don't come close to representing the views or votes of the electorate.

























PartyPopular VoteSeats Won
Conservatives36.1%47%
Labour29.0%40%
Liberal Democrats23.0%9%

The Conservative Party won the most votes and the most seats, but the number of seats it won was grossly out of proportion to its vote total. It secured only 36 percent of the popular vote, but now has 47 percent of the seats in the House of Commons. Similarly, the share of the popular vote compared with seats for the Labour Party is completely off. With only 29 percent of the vote, it still managed to get 40 percent of the seats. The current system has inflicted the most hurt on the Liberal Democrats. Despite winning 23 percent of the vote, they gained only nine percent of the seats. A large share of the voters whose political views align with the Liberal Democrats have no representation.

The UK has a hung Parliament because no party has an outright majority of 325. If the Conservatives had done slightly better, or if left-leaning candidates had more evenly split the vote in a few districts, there could be a Conservative party ruling the country with significantly less than 40 percent support.

Liberal Democrats and Labour are the natural coalition for a center-left government because of their overlap in political stances. A clear majority of 52 percent voted for Lib Dems and Labour. An even larger majority voted for left-leaning candidates when you add in a few much smaller parties. But as a result of the UK unrepresentative electoral system, Lib Dems and Labour don't have enough seats to form a coalition government together. The Conservatives will also have to look for a few new friends in order to make a majority.

That new source may be the Liberal Democrats. With a national center-left coalition unlikely Lib Dems are now negotiating with the Conservatives to form a right-of- center coalition, even though that’s not how most people voted. Lib Dems are hoping to get election reform as part of any coalition deal.

The crucial thing is, this didn’t have to happen. You can hold elections where the government actually represents the will of the people. You can have a system of proportional representation where a party’s number of seats is always in line with how many votes it gets. The overwhelming majority of democracies in the world use some form of proportional representation.

I hope the Liberal Democrats succeed with election reform. The UK should adopt new election laws that allow the citizens of the country to get a government that mirrors the will of the voters. Look how different the results would be if the UK had been using instant runoff voting or proportional representation.

If they do change, it will leave the US as one of the few countries still using the illogical “first past the post” system. If you ever wonder why you are forced to choose between only Democrats or Republicans, even when neither seems to represent your views, look at how hard it is for even a strong third party like the Liberal Democrats to win seats in a broken system. We don’t all love one of the two parties; we simply live in a system that reduces choice.

Feature or Bug? Weak Employer Mandate Invites Companies to Drop Health Coverage

Documents provided to Congress by several large companies show that they are seriously considering dropping their employer-provided health insurance coverage because the new health care law contains a very weak employer mandate. Companies are doing the math and realizing that paying a per-employee penalty to the government for not providing coverage is substantially less than paying per employee for health insurance. It is the right economic move based on the design of the new law, and was always the long-term plan of those who helped create it. From Fortune:
AT&T produced a PowerPoint entitled "Medical Cost Versus No Coverage Penalty." A document prepared for Verizon by consulting firm Hewitt Resources stated, "Even though the proposed assessments [on companies that do not provide health care] are material, they are modest when compared to the average cost of health care.” To avoid costs and regulations, "employers may consider exiting the health care market and send employees to the Exchanges." (Under the new bill, employees who lose their coverage will purchase health care through state-run exchanges.)

Kenneth Huhn, vice president of labor relations at Deere, said in an internal email that his company should look at the alternatives to providing health benefits, which "would amount to denying coverage and just paying the penalty," and that he felt he already had the ability to make this change under his company's labor agreement. Caterpillar felt it would have to give "serious consideration" to the penalty option.

It's these analyses -- which show it's a lot cheaper to "pay" than to "play" -- that threaten to overthrow the traditional architecture of health care.

It should not be surprising that companies would think about dropping coverage in response to the design of the new law and its very weak employer mandate. I have been saying for months that a massive dropping of employer-provided coverage is the logical decision for companies, and now we have proof that several large corporations are following my logic.

Why employers provide insurance under the current system

Right now, it is dramatically cheaper, safer and better for many people to get health insurance through their employer than to buy it on their own. Employers also get a huge tax break on providing employee insurance. So, in a competitive job market, job-seekers are more likely to select employers that offer health insurance benefits. If companies are trying to attract workers, it makes more financial sense to offer them health insurance than higher salaries or other benefits. But the economics of offering insurance completely change if people without employer-provided insurance are getting their health care cost partially or mainly covered by the government.

For many low-income or middle-class people, the fact that a company offers a modest health insurance plan might not be a net gain. They could, in theory, be better or as well off without company insurance because the tax credits on the exchange might pay for more of their premiums than their employer would. And since employers would only pay a small penalty for not offering insurance, they would benefit financially by not providing health care.

The majority of bosses are decent people who want their employees to have health insurance. They would prefer their employees not be one illness away from financial ruin and know the individual health insurance market is a scam. But if the government is now guaranteeing that everyone can afford to buy regulated health insurance on their own, they won't have any problem not offering coverage.

The economics are pretty simple. An employer could pay for employees’ ever-rising health care costs or pay a much smaller flat penalty, knowing that a government exchange will pay a significant part of their employees’ costs. While I don't think most companies will ditch coverage right away in 2014, they will give the exchanges a few years to see if they work. In the long run, a major cut in employer-provided insurance is inevitable.

A feature, not a bug

My one dispute with the Fortune article is that it calls this an “unintended consequence.” That’s nonsense. The logic of this producing a system that encourages companies to drop coverage is clear. If you look at the people who helped President Obama design this law, they all oppose the employer-based system and wanted to eliminate it. The Administration also did not try to get a strong employer mandate. I strongly believe the incentive for a massive dropping of coverage was part of the plan and not a bug. We’ll find out around 2018.

Compromise Fetishists: How Secret Deals Obscure Accountability, Subvert Democracy

There is nothing inherently good about compromise. The ability to form a good compromise, when it is necessary, is an important skill. But you should compromise only when you can't completely achieve what you want without it. If you have sufficient votes or support for your position and think it is the best choice of action, then you should pursue it. Compromising in that instance is stupid.

The problem with Washington is the fake "compromise fetish” (which is similar to the “bipartisan fetish”) that turned compromise into the desired goal--without regard to policy value or whether there is a need to compromise in the first place. What is the source of this fetish? Compromise destroys accountability. Politicians hate being held accountable and so they have a vested interest to support this fetish and those who share it.

The worst part is that this is not even a fetish for proper compromise. When two or more groups publicly state their positions and reasoning and then try to reach a middle ground while no side holds a majority, that is a proper political compromise. What dominates Washington is a fetish for backroom deals, which is dressed up in language about the virtues of compromise and bipartisanship. This "backroom deal fetish" lets politicians hide and lie about their positions. Senators don't publicly state their positions, so no one can ever be held responsible for the watering down. At its core, this fetish for secret compromise is an attempt to undermine accountability. As a result, it also undermines the principle of democracy.

Take a look at how this accountability-destroying fetish works with the real “Audit the Fed.” It has already passed the House, so we know it has the votes there. Based on the fact that the amendment had a significant number of Republican co-sponsors, it would only fail if a lot of Democrats voted against it. Which Democrats are actually against it? I would really like to know, because that could definitely affect my vote in the next election.

I do not know if the original, stronger version of the amendment would have passed (and I never will), but given past votes and the willingness of Chris Dodd to compromise on it, the chances seem pretty good. Of course, I and the rest of America will never get to know, thanks to a secret backroom compromise. No one was ever forced to go on the record, so no one can be punished for standing against it.

This is how you kill accountability. The proper response to secret backroom deals to water down the amendment should be: “Why did we need to compromise at all? Who were the senators who planned to stand against this?” We have a right to answers, and unless we know where legislators stand, how can we attempt to elect a better Congress?

Instead, the backroom deal fetishists’ accountability destroying response was: “What a wonderful compromise! I don't even know if it is good policy, but I love compromises because they are compromises.” Oh, and by the way, that means that they feel that it is perfectly fine if we never know who stood in the way of something we support when we consider the midterm elections.

The fake compromise fetishists give cover to lying politicians who speak out of both sides of their mouths. It encourages them to lie by creating a system in which they will never need to fulfill their promises. In fact, not fulfilling their promises will even be hailed as a virtue because they "trade" them away as part of secret compromises.

We could not get a real Audit the Fed passed in the Senate because there were claims that 41 senators were against it. We will never know who they are because there will not be a vote. We could not get a health care public option in reconciliation because of a mystery group of at least 51 senators, and the fear that it might disturb the secret compromise. As for who actually stood in the way of the public option, the voters will forever be kept in the dark, despite promises by the President, the Speaker of the House, and the Senate Majority leader. On the biggest issue in the health care fight, backroom deal fetishists helped justify most senators hiding their actual stance.

A similar big promise on direct Medicare drug price negotiation was never put to a vote by Democrats. Despite its being part of the Democratic platform, and despite Democrats being in full control of both branches of Congress, it needed to be traded away as part of a compromise to PhRMA. Once again, we get a compromise when we were all falsely led to believe we elected enough supporters of the measure so that a compromise would not be needed. Who do we need to replace to actually achieve this goal? Our not having the answer to that question is a great way for PhRMA to prevent it ever happening. We are still working to repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell, and yet we don't know who is prepared to vote against the LBGT community, or if compromise is even necessary.

The list goes on and on. Like hiding behind the filibuster, using fake compromise fetishists to justify secret deals is how accountability is being drained from our democracy. Voters deserve to know exactly where their representatives really stand. Open, transparent compromise is fine when needed, but this disgusting process of creating secret, backroom deals without ever letting the voters know who stands for or against anything is detrimental to democracy.

WA Sen: A Tale of Three Polls - Patty Murray in Good, Decent or Terrible Shape

The polling in the Washington Senate race is all over the map, and, depending on the survey, incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray is either in good, decent or terrible shape.

A new Elway poll (pdf), released Wednesday, favors Murray to win a fourth term. She leads one possible Republican candidate, former gubernatorial hopeful Dino Rossi, by 17 points (Murray 51 percent - Rossi 34 percent), and all other potential GOP picks by even larger margins. With a solid lead over a legitimate Republican contender with high name recognition, and polling 50 percent or higher against all Republican challengers, this poll is good news for Democrats.
Murray 51% - Rossi 34% - Undecided 15%

Murray 51% - Don Benton 27% - Undecided 22%

Murray 50% - Paul Akers 26% - Undecided 24%

Murray 50% - Clint Didier 24% - Undecided 26%

A Rasmussen poll, also released Wednesday, paints a very different picture. Rasmussen (which traditionally skews a little to the right) has Murray with only a two-point lead over Rossi (48 - 46).

Rossi has not yet decided if he will enter the race. If he doesn't, there is some decent news for Murray in this Rasmussen poll. The incumbent senator has a significant lead over the rest of the potential Republican field, polling around 50 percent in those matchups.

The worst news comes from a SurveyUSA poll from the end of April. That poll showed Murray seriously trailing Rossi, with 42 percent to Rossi’s 52 percent. Against all the other candidates, Murray was in a statistical dead heat, and polled below 50 percent in each comparison.

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