CBO: House Bill Budget Neutral In This Decade And Next

The CBO has concluded that the House bill will reduce the deficit over the next ten years, and will also reduce the federal deficit over the next twenty years. This was accomplished without an excise tax on health insurance benefits.

All told, H.R. 3962 would reduce the federal deficit by $9 billion in 2019, CBO and JCT estimate. After that, the added revenues and cost savings are projected to grow slightly more rapidly than the cost of the coverage expansions. In the decade after 2019, the gross cost of the coverage expansions would probably exceed 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), but the added revenues and cost savings would probably be greater. Consequently, CBO expects that the legislation would slightly reduce federal budget deficits in that decade relative to those projected under current law.