DCCC Attempts to Counter Bleak Narrative with Internal Polls

There has been a lot of bad news for Democrats recently. A Gallup poll found Republicans with a historically large, ten-point lead on the generic ballot question, and the ABC News/Washington Post poll found Republicans with a 13-point lead among likely voters on the generic ballot. Many political prognosticators are also projecting Democrats losing control of the House.

In what can only be assumed is an attempt to counter the “Democrats are doomed” narrative, the DCCC has released five internal polls of swing districts taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Not surprisingly, they paint a much better picture for Democrats in the midterms.

All polls are of 400 likely voters

DCCC (8/25-29)
Larry Kissell (D) 48
Harold Johnson (R) 36
Thomas Hill (L) 6

DCCC (8/23-26)
Bobby Bright (D) 52
Martha Roby (R) 43

DCCC (8/24-26)
Tom Perriello (D) 42
Robert Hurt (R) 44
Jeff Clark (I) 6

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 50
Kristi Noem (R) 41

DCCC (8/29-31)
Mike Arcuri (D) 50
Richard Hanna (R) 37

These polls are more favorable to Democrats than what little independent polling I have seen on these races. For example, a recent SurveyUSA poll found Perriello trailing Hurt by 23 points, and an August 6 Rasmussen poll found Herseth Sandlin losing by nine points. It would be very interesting to see crosstabs and projected turnout for all these polls. The problem is not really that voters who supported Democrats are now backing Republicans, but that most pollsters are finding Democratic-leaning voters are not planning to vote this November.

While at or just below 50 percent in a poll is not a great place for an incumbent to be, these numbers don't reflect the huge wave you would expect, given recent generic ballot polling. Seeing that the DCCC’s numbers are from internal polls, probably selected from the best polls of all swing districts, released now to counter the Democrats are in real trouble memo, I would take the findings with a grain of salt.

The fact that even the best polling the DCCC has show Perriello losing speaks to just how much trouble he is in.


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