If You Pass Reform And No One Sees It, Does It Make A Bounce?

Apparently, the political bubble in Washington is now made with a completely non-transparent slime. Democrats actually believe they will get a huge bounce from passing the Senate bill. (Via Ben Smith at Politico)
[A]n official predicted to me the other day that Obama's numbers would hit 60 after the health care bill passes, and Chuck Schumer seems to think roughly the same thing: that the public polling on the Democratic reform bill will turn around "soon."

When people see what is in this bill and when people see what it does, they will come around," Schumer said. "The reason people are negative is not the substance of the bill, but the fears that the opponents have laid out. When those fears don't materialize, and people see the good in the bill, the numbers are going to go up."

This statement from Schumer does not make any sense. No one is going to “see what it does” until 2014. They are going to pass something called "health care reform," but, for 99% of Americans, it means basically no change until 2014. That definitely does not sound like a recipe to win over a skeptical public.

I simply do not believe people will be more happy about this pile of broken promises and corporate giveaways, because after it passes nothing (good or bad) happens until half way through Obama's second term. The damage Obama has done to the base by refusing to fight for real reform will not be repaired easily. I would also definitely not want to be a Democrat who voted for this needing to explain to everyone during my 2010 and 2012 campaigns why nothing has been reformed.

The best possible outcome for Democrats seems to be the hope that people who are angry about this bill will find something new to be even more angry about by the 2010 midterm election. The worst possible outcome is that people still fear what will happen when the bill goes into effect and blame Democrats for everything that is wrong with the health care system they claimed to have fixed. Either way, I don't see how you get more than a dead cat bounce out of a bill no one will feel for years.

1 comment:

Scott said...

The thing is, people DO see it: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/21/171551/52


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