WA Sen: A Tale of Three Polls - Patty Murray in Good, Decent or Terrible Shape

The polling in the Washington Senate race is all over the map, and, depending on the survey, incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray is either in good, decent or terrible shape.

A new Elway poll (pdf), released Wednesday, favors Murray to win a fourth term. She leads one possible Republican candidate, former gubernatorial hopeful Dino Rossi, by 17 points (Murray 51 percent - Rossi 34 percent), and all other potential GOP picks by even larger margins. With a solid lead over a legitimate Republican contender with high name recognition, and polling 50 percent or higher against all Republican challengers, this poll is good news for Democrats.
Murray 51% - Rossi 34% - Undecided 15%

Murray 51% - Don Benton 27% - Undecided 22%

Murray 50% - Paul Akers 26% - Undecided 24%

Murray 50% - Clint Didier 24% - Undecided 26%

A Rasmussen poll, also released Wednesday, paints a very different picture. Rasmussen (which traditionally skews a little to the right) has Murray with only a two-point lead over Rossi (48 - 46).

Rossi has not yet decided if he will enter the race. If he doesn't, there is some decent news for Murray in this Rasmussen poll. The incumbent senator has a significant lead over the rest of the potential Republican field, polling around 50 percent in those matchups.

The worst news comes from a SurveyUSA poll from the end of April. That poll showed Murray seriously trailing Rossi, with 42 percent to Rossi’s 52 percent. Against all the other candidates, Murray was in a statistical dead heat, and polled below 50 percent in each comparison.

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