A new Elway poll (pdf), released Wednesday, favors Murray to win a fourth term. She leads one possible Republican candidate, former gubernatorial hopeful Dino Rossi, by 17 points (Murray 51 percent - Rossi 34 percent), and all other potential GOP picks by even larger margins. With a solid lead over a legitimate Republican contender with high name recognition, and polling 50 percent or higher against all Republican challengers, this poll is good news for Democrats.
Murray 51% - Rossi 34% - Undecided 15%
Murray 51% - Don Benton 27% - Undecided 22%
Murray 50% - Paul Akers 26% - Undecided 24%
Murray 50% - Clint Didier 24% - Undecided 26%
A Rasmussen poll, also released Wednesday, paints a very different picture. Rasmussen (which traditionally skews a little to the right) has Murray with only a two-point lead over Rossi (48 - 46).
Rossi has not yet decided if he will enter the race. If he doesn't, there is some decent news for Murray in this Rasmussen poll. The incumbent senator has a significant lead over the rest of the potential Republican field, polling around 50 percent in those matchups.
The worst news comes from a SurveyUSA poll from the end of April. That poll showed Murray seriously trailing Rossi, with 42 percent to Rossi’s 52 percent. Against all the other candidates, Murray was in a statistical dead heat, and polled below 50 percent in each comparison.