Meg Whitman 46
Jerry Brown 39
Carly Fiorina 47
Barbara Boxer 45
The poll is bad news for Brown, who has been struggling to generate excitement for his campaign. Whitman's lead is well above the poll’s four percent margin of error. Having spent roughly $80 million so far on a very sophisticated campaign, she has been able to flood the zone. Looking at the internals, Brown appears to have yet to rally his base. Democratic voters support him only by 64 percent to 20. As the November election nears, most Democrats will likely come home to Brown and improve his numbers.
This is just the latest poll to show the California Senate race effectively dead even. This poll has Fiorina beating incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer, but her two-point lead is within the margin of error. The GOP has a very narrow path to gaining control of the US Senate. It requires Republicans to sweep all the contests, including Fiorina winning in California.
President Obama's job-approval numbers are dragging down both Democrats. Among likely voters, 41 percent have a favorable view of his job performance, 43 percent have an unfavorable view and 14 percent have a neutral view.