Dead Even, But for How Long?

The first “real” poll numbers are coming in today and they point to a dead even race. Both the Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls have McCain with a statistically insignificant 1 point advantage. At this point the election is still anyones game.

While the polls are currently as close as possible it might not be for long. The tone of the campaign has quickly turned from the absurdly silly to the deadly serious. Face with the worst economy in decades, huge debt, and two wars the stakes for the nation could not be higher. The country is in serious trouble and needs real leadership. I suspect that a broad consensus will eventually form about one or both of the candidates. American is either going to decided that Barack Obama lacks the experience need to guide our nation through trouble waters, or that John McCain does not understand how to fix the problems facing the middle class.

Get Ready for the First Real Polls

Despite the shockingly long campaign season many American didn't start paying attention to the presidential race until the conventions. After both of the conventions we saw an impressive bounce for each candidate. It is only now that the presidential race has began in earnest that we will see polling numbers that really matter.

Many democrats are fretting Obama's current numbers and some Republicans have started popping the champagne prematurely. But, I suspect that it takes about a week for the McCain's happy convention aura to wear off. The polls which started contacting people today should give us our first real view of the state of the race. Polling is usually done over the course of 3-5 days, so the polls which are released this upcoming Monday and Tuesday will be very informative.