The Black and Youth Waves Were Real

I have noticed that several political writers and pundits have been claiming that African Americans and young people failed to turn out in the huge numbers that people were expecting. Recently the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza claimed that it is a "myth" that "a wave of African Americans and youth voters was the key to Obama's victory."

The truth is that African Americans and young people did turnout in large numbers for Barack Obama and were important to his victory.

According to exit polls, African Americans made up 11% of the total vote in 2004 and 13% in 2008. 2% does not sound like a lot, but that is a huge jump. That means African Americans increased their percent of the electorate by 18%. But overall turnout was higher in 2008 than it was in 2004, so in fact 22% more African Americans voted in 2008. A 22% increase in turnout among African Americans had a huge impact on Obama's victory. Not only did African Americans vote in large numbers, but they also voted more heavily for Obama. Obama received 32% more votes from African Americans than John Kerry. That allowed him to net 4.6 million more votes from the African American community than John Kerry. Only 3 million votes separated George W. Bush and John Kerry and 8.5 million votes separated Barack Obama and John McCain.

Similarly, the youth vote only increased from 17% of the electorate to 18%, but the vote was overwhelmingly for Obama. Barack Obama received 34% more votes from 18-29 year olds than John Kerry. That is a net positive of more than 5.9 million votes from youth voters than John Kerry.

32% more African American voters and 34% more youth voters showed up to cast a ballot for Barrack Obama than John Kerry. This is a huge surge given that overall turnout was higher only by 4% in 2008 than 2004. If John Kerry had preformed as well as Barack Obama among African Americans or young voters, he would have won the popular vote.

Two Possible Wins for Barack Obama, One for John McCain

I can picture Barack Obama winning the election in two dramatically different ways. One possibility is the landslide. Young people and African Americans turn out in record numbers. The Obama campaign's Get Out the Vote effort is unlike anything in history. As a result, Obama could win all the toss up states, possibly including such improbable places as North Carolina, North Dakota, and Montana. This would be a electoral vote victory in the range of 338-378.

The other road to victory for Obama is the narrow win. The polls would need to tighten, young people would need to disappoint him, and finally, the undecided would need to break heavily for McCain. In this scenario, Obama only wins the states where he is currently polling over 50%. He would fail to win Ohio and Florida, but would still piece together a victory with Iowa, Virginia, and/or the mountain west states. Under this path, Obama is declared president late in the evening with between 272-286 electoral votes.

For John McCain to win, the stars would all need to align. Not only would the polls need to tighten, young people need to stay home, and undecided break heavily for McCain, but a massive wave of infrequent rural white voters also need to turn out in large numbers. Even if all that happens, it would be highly unlikely that John McCain would win a single state John Kerry carried in 2004. McCain could still lose Iowa yet pull off a very narrow between 270-279 electoral victory. If John McCain wins the election it will make for a very, very late election night.

The Wrong Messenger of Safety

In yesterday's debate, John McCain attacked Barack Obama for his tepid (even Clintonian) support of nuclear power. He claimed, "I was on Navy ships that had nuclear power plants. Nuclear power is safe, and it's clean." On this point I agree with John McCain. Nuclear power has a strong track record and is one of the few sources of energy which can start reducing our dependence on fossil fuel now.

My problem is that John McCain is using his time aboard a nuclear-powered Navy vessel as anecdotal proof of nuclear safety. John McCain has had 4 bouts with lethal skin cancer.

John McCain Still Not Back

John McCain announced yesterday morning that he was going to suspend his campaign. He claimed it was urgent for him to rush back to Washington to work on the finance bailout. It is 24 hours later and John McCain is still not here in Washington. In fact, John McCain will not being getting back to Washington until late this afternoon. Despite having his own plane and “suspending” his campaign It will take him 30 hours to get to Washington to deal with the crisis. Not what I call swift leadership.

Dead Even, But for How Long?

The first “real” poll numbers are coming in today and they point to a dead even race. Both the Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls have McCain with a statistically insignificant 1 point advantage. At this point the election is still anyones game.

While the polls are currently as close as possible it might not be for long. The tone of the campaign has quickly turned from the absurdly silly to the deadly serious. Face with the worst economy in decades, huge debt, and two wars the stakes for the nation could not be higher. The country is in serious trouble and needs real leadership. I suspect that a broad consensus will eventually form about one or both of the candidates. American is either going to decided that Barack Obama lacks the experience need to guide our nation through trouble waters, or that John McCain does not understand how to fix the problems facing the middle class.

Get Ready for the First Real Polls

Despite the shockingly long campaign season many American didn't start paying attention to the presidential race until the conventions. After both of the conventions we saw an impressive bounce for each candidate. It is only now that the presidential race has began in earnest that we will see polling numbers that really matter.

Many democrats are fretting Obama's current numbers and some Republicans have started popping the champagne prematurely. But, I suspect that it takes about a week for the McCain's happy convention aura to wear off. The polls which started contacting people today should give us our first real view of the state of the race. Polling is usually done over the course of 3-5 days, so the polls which are released this upcoming Monday and Tuesday will be very informative.

John McCain Knows Sexual Insensitivity

The John McCain campaign is accusing Barack Obama of sexual insensitivity for using the common political phrase “You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig.” Even though the phrase has been used by almost every politician in America, the John McCain campaign claims this time it was making reference to Governor Sarah Palin. The reason: Sarah Palin has publicly stated that she in fact wears lipstick.

Personally, I did not see anything wrong with what Barack Obama said, but clearly I don't understand sexual sensitivity as deeply as John McCain. After all, this is the man who joked, “Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly-- because her father is Janet Reno?”

Now that is how you do sexual insensitivity. It is a simple joke but with many layers of sexism and crudeness. It is an onion of insensitivity. He starts by making fun of the appearance of a teenage girl. He then calls one of the most powerful women in America ugly, while implying that she is in reality a transvestite. Finally, he is claiming that Hillary Clinton was not only unfaithful to her husband, but is also a lesbian (or at least enjoys extramarital sex with a transvestite). Clearly, John McCain understands sexism on a very meaningful level.

How Can You Not Know?

John McCain revealed the other day that he did not know how many houses he and his wife own. I'm not going to attack John McCain for being fabulously wealthy. Getting rich is part of the American dream and shouldn't be vilified.

I'm also not going to claim that being wealthy means that you can't understand the problems of everyday Americans. Obama, Bush, Kerry, Gore, John Edwards, Mitt Romney, and Hillary Clinton were all millionaires during their presidential runs. Even the relatively poor Bill Clinton had spent the previous decade in the governor's mansion-- not what I would call a working class neighborhood.

What John McCain should be criticized for is for simply not knowing how many houses he has. How the hell can he not know? This man wants to be the head of the largest economy on earth and does not even understand his personal finances. Does he go on vacation to a nice beach house and not bother to ask Cindy if they own it? Is his memory so bad that he can't add up the 7-8 houses he owns in his head? Does he have such a disregard for learning "small details" that he never bothered to learn how many houses he owns? Is this a trait we want in a president?

The Oracle of Walker, Part 2: VP Picks

I expect that one if not both of the vice presidential candidates will be named in the next week. The Olympics start on August 8^th, so either the presidential candidates name their respective VP picks this week, or they have to wait until September.

I'm a little surprised that the VP candidates have not already been named. Time is the most precious resource any campaign has. The presidential candidates have endless demands on their limited time. There are always forums to speak at, fundraisers to attend, interviews to give, and battleground states to visit. As long as the VP has been well vetted and won't pull a Dan Quayle, there seems to be very little to gain by waiting. The VP is the candidate's most important surrogate. They can attend the lesser fundraisers and events that the candidate is unable to attend.

John McCain: Welfare Queen of the Year

John McCain has described the way social security is financed as "a disgrace." He said, "Americans have got to understand that we are paying present-day retirees with the taxes paid by young workers in America today, and that's a disgrace. It's an absolute disgrace, and it's got to be fixed."

McCain thinks this system is so disgraceful that he has diligently cashed his social security check every month for the past seven years. I guess John and Cindy McCain are having trouble making ends meet on his meager senate salary of $169,000 a year and her tiny $6 million yearly income. With a net worth of only $100 million they must be living on a very fixed income. High oil prices means that John's social security checks no longer even cover the cost of the fuel for their private jet.

John McCain is right. It is a disgrace when millionaire senators stump about social security going bankrupt while they bleed the fund dry. For deciding that he just can't make ends meet without this "disgraceful" social security checks, I've nominated John McCain for "Welfare Queen of the Year."

The Oracle of Walker, Part 1: Three Surprisingly Interesting States

Everyone is currently focused on the traditional battleground states. Most of the talk, polling, and coverage have been about the normally competitive Great Lakes states and Florida. Thanks to rapid demographic changes, the southwest has also gained some interest. But there are three red states that I suspect will be very interesting: Alaska, Montana, and Mississippi.

Alaska

Republican Ted "Bridge to Nowhere" Stevens' senate seat is currently being challenged by Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Ted Stevens has become the poster child for corruption and pork barrel spending. In fact, John McCain has often boasted about his part in putting a stop to the Bridge to Nowhere. As a result, the Alaska senate race has so far been remarkably close. Polling has shown the race neck-and-neck.

Because Obama left the public financing system, he can afford and has promised to campaign in all fifty states. He has already started running ads in Alaska and will send at least one paid staffer to the state. He can even try putting pressure on John McCain to denounce Ted Stevens for his past pork barrel mischief. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr might do well ins this traditionally very libertarian state.

Even with Bob Barr stealing some votes from the right and Obama spending money, it is unlikely that John McCain will lose Alaska. He will probably not waste his limited resources in the far north. But in a state of only 600,000 people, a few extra paid staffers and some money spent on voter registration could make a big difference. Obama's injection of money might be enough to help put Mark Begich over the top.

Montana

Montana's Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer remains very popular and will likely win reelection easily. Democratic Senator Max Baucus' opponent is Republican Bob Kelleher. Bob Kelleher is a perennial candidate who has run repeated quixotic campaigns as part of both the Green and Democratic Party. He has zero support from the GOP party as a whole.

The Obama campaign claims that they are going to actively campaign in Montana. With no other big races bringing in Republicans, Obama might be able to drive up his poll numbers. While Obama will probably not win Montana, he could force John McCain to divert precious time and money to this normally red state.

Mississippi

Mississippi has the highest percentage of African Americans of any state. Over 37% of all Mississippians are black. If Barack Obama can dramatically increase African American turnout in Mississippi, he might make the state competitive. He would have an uphill battle. John Kerry only carried 14% of white votes in 2004. At the least, Obama could again force McCain to waste resources in a traditionally red state.

Even if massive African American turnout is not enough to allow Barack Obama to carry the state it could have a huge impact on the special senate race. Polling shows David Musgrove and Roger Wicker are currently dead even. Winning this senate seat could get the Democrats their long-hoped for 60-vote veto-proof majority.

The Rich Irony, Part 4: Campaign Finance Reform

Barack Obama has decided to forgo public campaign financing, despite saying earlier that he wanted to preserve the public campaign financing system. The rich irony is that now the Republicans are all over Obama for going back on his promise to take public campaign financing.

For years the Republicans have been rallying against campaign finance reform. They have spoken against, voted against, filibustered against, and campaigned against campaign financing reform. In fact, it was John McCain's support for the McCain-Feingold bill that created much of the bad blood within his own party. Now that for the first time in decades Democrats have a fundraising advantage, many Republicans are crying crocodile tears.

The irony does not stop there. The numerous campaign reform activists on the left are remaining conspicuously silent while Barack Obama becomes the first candidate since Watergate to back out of the public finance system. In a single day, Obama has done more to undermine the public campaign financing than all the PAC's and 527's combined, and the silence on the left is deafening.

The greatest irony of all is the reaction of John McCain. McCain is taking public financing not because of some deep-seated principle; if that were the case, he would not have opted out of public financing (in a legally questionable manner) during the primary. John McCain is taking public financing because he needs to. There is no way that McCain can match Obama's fundraising, so he needs to take a government handout. That is the rich irony. John McCain, a hardcore free trade capitalist, needs the government to intervene to even the playing field.

Righting the Ship

The Republican party is in bad shape. They recently lost 3 special elections in very Republican districts and are set to lose dozens of House and Senate seats. The question is how to right the ship. The party needs to turn back to its philosophical roots but not lose sight of the future. Here is my humble advice.

1) Clean your House

The Republican party has promoted itself as the party of family, God, and morality. Yet a series of sexual and political scandals have turned it into the party of hypocrisy. To gain its moral high ground the GOP needs to adopt clear standards and a zero tolerance policy. The short-term gain of allowing a disgraced congressman to keep his seat is not worth the long-term damage to the brand. The Republican leadership should loudly and publicly force convicted members like Vito Fossella and Larry Craig out of office.

2) Neo-Conservatism is the Antithesis of Conservatism

The Neo-Conservative movement has highjacked the Republican party and flown it into a mountain. War is too incredibly costly to co-exist with conservatism. You can't shrink the federal budget or cut taxes if you are spending trillions on war and weaponry. The GOP needs to go back to its small government roots, and aggressive Neo-Conservatism just can't be part of it.

The Republican party can still be committed to the goal of spreading freedom with a combination of tax incentives, tariffs, embargoes, and strategic military strikes. We should have free trade agreements with countries like Colombia and India which are moving towards democracy and not with totalitarian nations like China and Saudi Arabia. But preemptive wars and occupations are just too costly.

3) Cut the Pork

Earmarks are terrible. They are terrible for politics, terrible for accountability, and terrible for fiscal responsibility. The ballooning number of earmarks and the "Bridge to Nowhere" killed the GOP brand. They were a perfect example about how the Republican party lost its roots and its soul. Campaigning on the elimination of all earmarks would be a great way to show the base that you are listening.

4) Small Government Means Local Government

It should be the Republican ideology that it is best when a problem is solved at the lowest possible level. It is better when a problem is solved within a family than within a neighborhood, or within a town, a county, a state, or finally, the federal government. The message is: "The Democrats want the federal government to run your elementary schools; the Republicans want your local PTA in charge." The stated goal should not be so much to cut government services but to decentralize them.

The flipside is that the Republican party needs to tolerate it when states do things the national party does not like. Injecting the federal government into the medical marijuana issue or the gay marriage debate undercuts the whole Republican philosophy. It should not be a battle about what the federal government allows you to do, but about what the federal government is allowed to do.

5) Return to Realism

The GOP needs to once again be the party of speaking the cold hard truth. John McCain is well positioned to help the party in this regard. From the Iraq War we learned that a lie repeated enough will be believed, but not forever. Lying about weapons of mass destruction, war progress, and the economy has destroyed the Republican brand and made it look like a party of crazy old kooks.

6) Get on Board with Universal Healthcare

John McCain's healthcare plan is simply horrible. It may sound nice on paper but in the long run it would be a disaster. It doesn't matter how many tax credits you give or how many companies are competing in the market. If you have been diagnosed with a costly lifelong condition no insurance company will cover it if they can choose not to.

Healthcare is becoming a huge issue and will continue to grow in importance as the economy softens and healthcare costs soar. The USA is the only first world country with out a universal system, but it pays more per person than any other. The current system has failed, and reform will happen. It is time for the GOP to get on board and help shape the reform or be crushed by it. Germany, Switzerland, and Japan all have good market based universal healthcare systems which the GOP can model and champion.

The Gas Tax is Great

John McCain's and Hillary Clinton's plan to suspend the gas tax has been called everything from a "political ploy" to the "dumbest thing ever." The only thing it has not been called is a good idea. Why? Because the gas tax is great. It is shocking to hear a Republican attack the best and fairest tax in the country.

The gas tax is used to pay for the building and upkeep of our nation's roads and highways. If you don't drive a car, you are not using our highways; therefore, you aren't made to pay for something you don't use. If you drive a lot, creating a lot of wear and tear on our roads, you are made to pay your fair share.

For years this is how Republicans have been telling us they want taxes to work. The gas tax is fair, because the amount you pay is based on the amount to use. The gas tax is universal; no one-- not even criminals, drug dealers, or tax dodgers-- can get out of paying the gas tax. The gas tax is good because it discourages you from doing something which is bad for the air we breathe and bad for our health. And finally, the gas tax is simple. You don't need some huge IRS bureaucracy to monitor the gas tax. Instead of talking about suspending the gas tax we should be talking about how to make all our taxes more like the gas tax.

If Not a 100, Then…?

The John McCain campaign is pushing back hard against the Democrats' use of his "a hundred years" line. The McCain campaign does have a good point. The line has been taken way out of context and plays destructively into the politics of 30-second sound bites and gotcha moments. America faces great challenges and needs an election based on policy and overall vision. What is not needed is a fight over what party can best twist the words of the other.

While John McCain was not advocating a hundred years of war, he still has not answered the most important foreign policy question: If not 100 years, then how many? Rehashing the tired Republican taking point of "until the job is done" will not suffice. I'm not talking about a set-in-stone timetable which foolishly disregards facts on the ground, but an honest discussion with the American people about what level of commitment John McCain wants our nation to make.

Does he expect America to stop taking combat casualties during his first term, during his second term, or will America still be losing young men and women in Iraq even after he leaves the White House? After years of distortions and outright lies, it is time for a hard and honest debate. We need a measurement by which we can determine success. We need honesty about how many lives and how many billions he is prepared to commit. If McCain does not want to commit to a hundred years of war than how great a commitment is too great? Would 5 more years, 10 more years, or 20 more years be too great a sacrifice? It is time for the straight truth about Iraq from the Straight Talk Express.

Why is John McCain Misleading America?

I personally have great respect for John McCain; that is why I'm incredibly disturbed by his most recent statements. It has been reported that John McCain has repeatedly claimed Iran is training and supporting Al Qaeda's fight in Iraq. This was not a one-time slip of the tongue, but a statement he has made several times.

While it is true that Iran has been helping several Shiite groups and militias, it is patently absurd to think they would be supporting the Sunni group, Al Qaeda. Anyone who has studied the Iraq war or Al Qaeda should be aware of this fact. Shiites are a sworn enemy of Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda has killed thousands of Shiite Muslims in Iraq. The idea Iran is supporting Al Qaeda in Iraq is as absurd as, say, the Apartheid South African government supporting the American Black Panther movement.

Why would John McCain repeat this incredible falsehood? There are only three possibilities, and none of them are good:
1) John McCain in fact does not understand even the rudimentary facts about the Iraq war and the Middle East as a whole.
2) John McCain is an old man who can't keep his facts straight and misspeaks repeatedly.
3) John McCain is purposely lying to the American people about a connection between Iran and Al Qaeda for political gain or to drum up support for action against Iran.

None of these possibilities are reassuring about a John McCain presidency. At his most recent press conference, where John McCain again made the false claim about an Iran/Al Qaeda connection, Joe Lieberman was able to prompt him to correct himself. If he continues to "misspeaks" it should be very concerning.