Focus Increases On the Possibility Of Reconciliation And A Democratic Only Bill

Increasingly both parties are focusing on the possibility of passing health care reform using reconciliation. Yesterday Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid again threatened to use reconciliation if a bipartisan agreement can't be found.

“If we can’t work this out to do something within the committee structure, then we’ll be forced to do reconciliation,” said Reid, who said the tactic would be used as a “last resort.”

The threat may not be idle. The Hill is reporting that both Republicans and Democrats have started consulting the Senate parliamentarian to try to determine what parts of reform could pass using reconciliation.

Reconciliation is not the only option that Senate Democrats have to pass health care reform without Republican support. As early as tomorrow, Massachusetts's Governor David Patrick could appoint a new interim Democratic senator. The appointment would once again give the Senate Democratic Caucus 60 members. Sam Stein at the Huffington Post is reporting that some Senate Democratic leaders are renewing a push to convince the entire caucus to at least vote to shutdown a Republican Filibuster.

All 60 members of the caucus would need to vote to stop the filibuster, but passing the bill into law would only require a simple majority vote (50 senators plus a tiebreaker vote by VP Biden). Whether every Democratic senator is willing to allow a bill to come up for a vote even if they don't support the legislation remains an open question.

Ted Kennedy Brings a Giant Stick To The Health Care Fight

It has been reported by the Washington Post and Bloomberg.com, that Ted Kennedy plans to release an outline of his health care reform legislation next week, with the bill to be marked up soon afterwards. If reports are correct, this is not a bipartisan bill negotiated behind closed doors. It is a very strong, progressive piece of legislation -- the kind of bill which fills the grassroots with hope and the for-profit insurance companies with fear.

It is a bill which would never overcome a filibuster in the Senate; a bill Obama might be able to force through using reconciliation if he is willing to spend a lot of political capital. It is a bold and clear warning to the health insurance industry. If you fight the compromise we offer, we will let the progressives write a bill you will hate.

From reporting I've seen, Kennedy's bill contains not one but two very strong progressives proposals, either of which the for-profit health insurance industry is sure to fight tooth and nail. Kennedy's bill is reported to contain a strong public health insurance option, based on Medicare, and a very large expansion of Medicaid. Families making up to 500% of the federal poverty level ($110,250 a year) would be eligible for Medicaid. Individuals would also be able to buy a public plan managed like Medicare.

The goal of many progressives is to allow Americans to free themselves from for-profit health insurance. Either proposal alone could do just that. It would take a lot of grassroot lobbying and pressure from the president to keep even one of them. I suspect both proposals will be heavily watered down to create a compromised bipartisan bill. This is not likely to be the final bill; this is the stick which Democrats will use to threaten anyone who is unwilling to play ball.

Women's Liberation, Senate GOP Style

Arlen Specter's abandonment of the Republican Party should make it easier for three female GOP senators to make tough decisions. When the Senate Republicans had just enough senators to filibuster any Democratic piece of legislation, there was a strong sense of pressure to remain united. Now the Republican senators can't stop a united Democratic Caucus. There is no longer a practical reason for the GOP to form a fully united opposition.

The Senate Republicans will soon be feeling the freedom of irrelevancy. This new-found freedom should make life easier (although maybe not more enjoyable) for Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Kay Bailey Hutchison. Senator Collins and Snowe are now the two remaining moderate Republican senators. Since the Republicans no longer have the numbers to maintain a filibuster, they should dramatically ratchet down their pressure on these two to toe the party line. Collins and Snowe should be able to vote based on their conscience instead party considerations.

Senator Hutchison is not a moderate, but Specter's defection should give her greater freedom of action. Hutchison has been considering a run against Texas Governor Rick Perry. She would need to resign from the Senate to dedicate her time to a state-wide campaign. If she resigns there is a small but real possibility that a Democrat could win her seat in a special election. There was an argument that she should not give the Democrats a chance at getting to 60 in the Senate. Since the Democrats will now get 60 anyway, there is little reason for Hutchinson not to run.

Reconciliation: The Tipping Point On Health Care Reform

What is probably the decisive battle in the war to reform our health insurance system is currently being fought behind closed doors. It is not a battle over regulation, the public plan, or funding. It is the fight to include in the budget a provision to pass health care reform using reconciliation if a bipartisan bill fails. Reconciliation would allow health care reform to pass with a simple filibuster-proof majority.

Currently (without reconciliation) the Senate Republicans have an enormous influence over health care reform. If they can keep all 41 GOP senators together, they can filibuster any health care bill. Barack Obama has made health care reform his first of several major initiatives he wants to tackle. If health care reform fails, it would mean Obama is a weak and ineffective president. It would destroy his political capital and cripple all his other reform plans.

Obama needs to pass health care, and the Republicans know it. They know walking away from a bipartisan bill could hurt Obama more than themselves. Without reconciliation they could force any health care bill dramatically to the right despite their small numbers.

Including a health care reconciliation provision completely alters the political dynamics. With reconciliation the Democrats don't need any Republican support to pass health care reform. Without reconciliation, if the Republican senators walked away from a bill it would kill it. Now if Republicans refuse to compromise on health reform, it will end up being written by the left wing of the Democratic Party.

Reconciliation is the key to passing progressive health care reform. It is the massive stick which forces Republicans to make large compromises or live with a bill written entirely by Democrats. By including reconciliation and maintaining enough unity, the Democrats will be able to pass any health care reform they want.